Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Dec. 31: Picks for American Oaks, Via Borghese, Louisiana Futurity

The stand-in Weekend Warrior is fresh and feeling ready to fire after a vacation. Now I hope two of my selections in stakes Saturday, both of whom are returning from time away, are feeling the same.

American Oaks

The American Oaks, which has recently fallen on the weaker end of Grade 1 races, was positioned late in the calendar year in an effort to draw a more talented cast. But that didn’t happen, as most of the leading 3-year-old filly turf runners are sitting this one out after long campaigns.

The likely favorite is Stays in Vegas, who just missed when third in a three-horse photo against a better field of older female turf milers in the Matriarch. But being just 1 for 6 this year and stretching out to 1 1/4 miles, a distance over which she has never raced, I want no part of her.

Many others in the race have taken turns beating one another for much of the year, so I’m going with a new shooter: European invader Queen Blossom.

Queen Blossom began her career by winning two of her first three starts, but she went off form in her last two races and went to the sidelines. Away since May, she would not normally be the type of horse I would choose, given the form reversal that is needed.

Still, there are reasons to believe that just might be in the cards. Queen Blossom has twice won fresh, first in her debut last year at 2 and then to kick off her 3-year-old campaign. Plus, she has worked promisingly leading up to her U.S. debut for trainer Graham Motion, who has given her a diet of steady drills, including a couple at Santa Anita on dirt.

Queen Blossom also adds the anti-bleeding medication Lasix, increasing the likelihood of a bounce back.

I’m further encouraged that Motion feels confident enough to try her in this race after her last two failures and such a long layoff, when he could have opted to run her in a second-level allowance. Add that all up, and she looks dangerous off the shelf.

Via Borghese

Barn confidence is also being shown by the placement of Happyness in the Via Borghese by trainer Chad Brown, who hasn’t started the filly since she won a pair of allowances in the spring in New York.

Like Queen Blossom, Happyness is a European, one who showed quality in three starts overseas before coming to the U.S. and winning two right off the bat. And she shares another trait with Queen Blossom – a winning history after layoffs. She won a race in France after 2 1/2 months off and one in America for Brown after almost a year away from racing.

I’m hopeful that since Happyness is untested in stakes and drawn on the far outside, the public may not bet her with the usual gusto it does most Chad Brown turf runners.

As for the outside post, I am not letting that draw dissuade me from backing her. With the Via Borghese at 1 3/16 miles, there is a long run to the first turn in the two-turn race, which should allow jockey Tyler Gaffalione plenty of time to get her well positioned.

Louisiana Futurity (female division)

With a deep field of 14 entered for the female division of the Louisiana Futurity at Fair Grounds, and with morning-line favorite Sashimi Buster being a deep closer cutting back from two-turn routes to a six-furlong sprint, the race looks ripe for a winner at a generous payoff.

I like Quarter Carat, who ran a close fifth first out after a slow start before stretching out to a mile and winning a maiden race in determined fashion in her second start. And though her future will likely come as a router, she seems to have enough speed to adjust to the cutback to a sprint.

In winning her latest, Quarter Carat showed a surprising amount of quickness after a midpack break, advancing into third while eating dirt from the front-runner. There, she remained on hold from her rider before being cut loose late on the second turn and running down the leader, Singing a Song, who returns in the Louisiana Futurity.

That experience running inside behind horses should serve her well in the Louisiana Futurity. Drawn in post 2, Quarter Carat could receive the same inside stalking trip behind the speed she just got in her maiden victory.