Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Dec. 29: Picks for American Oaks, Tropical Park Oaks, Via Borghese

Although the 2018 racing season will not formally wrap up until New Year’s Eve on Monday, the final graded stakes race of the year comes Saturday with the Grade 1 American Oaks at Santa Anita, which follows the Grade 3 Robert J. Frankel there a couple hours earlier.

The American Oaks is an interesting turf contest, with horses converging upon California from all over the country, and the Warrior has it as one of his spotlight races, along with a couple other ungraded stakes from Gulfstream.

American Oaks

The 5-2 favorite in the American Oaks is Californiagoldrush, a winner of three of four starts whose lone defeat came when she ran third in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks over the summer. She has won at from 6 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, and already defeated fellow American Oaks contender Colonia in taking the Sands Point in her most recent start Sept. 15 at Belmont.

Although she is talented, I do not consider her the class of the field. Rather, I view Paved, a two-time stakes winner who has raced in four Grade 1 races, as superior from that perspective. Moreover, Paved returns to her home course at Santa Anita, where she won the Grade 2 Honeymoon earlier in the year.

Sticking out in Paved’s past performances is her race in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita on Sept. 29. Matched against her elders and at the same 1 1/4-mile distance as the American Oaks, she closed sweetly to run second, beaten a half-length by Vasilika, California’s top grass mare.

That performance, which earned Paved a career-best 98 Beyer Speed Figure, need only be replicated for her to win Saturday. Her rivals typically run Beyers in the 80s or low 90s.

I’m hopeful Paved’s 12th, beaten 17 lengths, in the Nov. 3 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf at Churchill Downs will give some bettors pause about backing her, perhaps allowing her to stick to her 3-1 price as the second choice on the morning line.

That loss was entirely forgivable. She seemed overmatched on paper, as just about any U.S. 3-year-old filly would have been, and then little went right during the race. Steadied in a scramble for position before the first of three turns, she raced along the inside over a rain-soaked course that appeared to favor horses running well off the hedge.

I am drawing a line through the race and betting her Saturday.

Tropical Park Oaks

Another grass race restricted to 3-year-old fillies, though with less prestige on the line, goes as the eighth race at Gulfstream, the $75,000 Tropical Park Oaks.

There, the price is right on Andina Del Sur, an 8-1 shot on the morning line who, like Paved, warrants forgiveness for a rear-half finish in her last race. In her case, that came in the Winter Memories at Aqueduct when sixth in a race that was moved from turf to the main track.

Toss that race out, and Andina Del Sur is otherwise dependable. She won the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa Bay Downs at the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Tropical Park Oaks, and though winless since, she has raced with some of the cream of the division, losing to such classy fillies as Rushing Fall and Daddy Is a Legend.

She should be tactical enough under Luis Saez to work out a stalking trip over a course where she was twice stakes-placed last winter on firm ground.

Via Borghese

Although millionaire Holy Helena is the clear one to beat in the Via Borghese, race 9 at Gulfstream, I am reluctant to back her at a short price following flat efforts in two recent starts, even though she is returning to a course over which she was perfect in two starts last winter. She is 5-2 on the line and likely to drop lower due to popular first-time Lasix and dirt-to-turf angles.

Believing Holy Helena will dip to 9-5 or so, I will try Tricky Escape as an alternative at her 7-2 morning line. I have long respected her fight, as well as how she regularly outruns her odds. She also possesses tactical speed that often leads to favorable trips.

The 1 3/16-mile distance of the Via Borghese also appears a good fit for this mare. Many of her better races have come in similar two-turn grass contests within a furlong of this distance.

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