Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Dec. 26: Picks for La Brea, Daytona, Pago Hop

There are certain days on the racing calendar that horseplayers await with eager anticipation. The granddaddy of them all is, of course, the first Saturday in May, with the running of the Kentucky Derby. But in the honorable-mention category, there is always Dec. 26, when Santa Anita opens for its winter-spring meet and the track runs the Grade 1 Malibu, among other graded stakes races.

This year, the Malibu has star appeal in Runhappy, the Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner, but to these eyes, the race takes a backseat wagering-wise to a couple of Santa Anita’s undercard stakes. So, let’s look at the La Brea and the Daytona as well as the Pago Hop at Fair Grounds.

La Brea

The sister race to the Malibu, the La Brea drew Cavorting, the beaten favorite when fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, as well as the streaking Hot City Girl, a winner of three straight in progressively faster time.

If this race were in New York, where these two fillies have been based for much of the year, they would be difficult to fault. Both are classy, proven at the La Brea’s distance of seven furlongs, and are the leading money earners in the field. But with the race being in California, they are essentially playing a road game.

As an alternative to those New Yorkers, I like Ben’s Duchess, a California-based 3-year-old filly who has run 100 Beyer Speed Figures twice in her last three starts. She earned a 100 Beyer in winning the Grade 3 L.A. Woman against older females over the Santa Anita dirt in her last race Oct. 4.

That wasn’t just a fast race but also a productive one. Runner-up Uzziel came back to win her next race in the Grade 2 Goldikova on the Del Mar turf, and third-place Taris finished third in the Filly and Mare Sprint before winning the Grade 3 Go For Wand at Belmont.

Ben’s Duchess had a perfect trip in the L.A. Woman, stalking four dueling leaders in a five-horse field, but she deserves credit for having a running style that often results in favorable trips. She has shown that she can win from a length or two off the pace or from as far as 7 1/2 lengths back, as she did in the L.A. Woman.

Ben’s Duchess has maintained a steady work pattern since the L.A. Woman for the La Brea, which will be her first race in more than 2 1/2 months.

Daytona

The fourth race at Santa Anita on Saturday is the Daytona, a 6 1/2-furlong turf dash going down the hill that attracted a full field of 14. I’m in Alert Bay’s corner despite his seventh-place finish Nov. 27 in the Seabiscuit Handicap at Del Mar. A dependable horse, he deserves another chance.

Alert Bay has won 11 of 21 starts, and there is very little he cannot do. He has won sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt at Santa Anita, at 1 3/8 miles in the slop at Hastings, and on turf and synthetic at distances from a mile to 1 1/16 miles. What he hasn’t done is race down the hill, but given his versatility and his breeding – he is by City Zip, one of the top sires of turf sprinters in the country – he seems likely to rebound and run to his potential.

Also, he is 4 for 5 on the Santa Anita turf course and is reunited with jockey Martin Garcia, who was aboard when Alert Bay ran a career-best 105 Beyer in winning the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile at Santa Anita on Sept. 27.

Pago Hop

Given the depth and the closely matched nature of the overdrawn Pago Hop, a one-mile turf race for 3-year-old fillies at Fair Grounds, my strategy is to play a value horse, 12-1 shot America Mon Amie. I am hoping that because of her last race, a ninth-place finish in the Grade 3 Cardinal, in which she lost by 21 lengths, she will not drop much from her morning line.

To me, that last race is a toss-out. She faced older females in that race and probably didn’t care for racing over the extremely tiring yielding conditions at Churchill Downs. The winner, Button Down, raced 1 1/8 miles in a very slow 1:56.19.

She fits on form beyond that race. She is a minor stakes winner and strung together three consecutive close fourths in pretty salty 3-year-old company before her thumping in the Cardinal.