Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Dec. 19: Picks for Blushing K. D., Inaugural, Lightning City

Although the Los Alamitos Futurity is the premier stakes Saturday, a Grade 1 race that could produce horses for the 2016 Kentucky Derby, with only seven betting interests, it is just not particularly exciting from a wagering perspective relative to deeper stakes across the country.

The Warrior is more eager to play some second-tier stakes from Fair Grounds and Tampa Bay Downs, both of which have multiple stakes on Saturday. So, let’s get to it, starting with Fair Grounds.

Blushing K. D.

A 1 1/16-mile turf stakes for fillies and mares, the Blushing K. D. attracted a full field of 12, though at least a scratch or two appears likely, with three horses cross-entered in the Tiffany Lass Stakes on dirt later on the card.

Seeing potential vulnerability in favorites Eden Prairie and Kitten’s Dumplings, who might be past their prime, a value opportunity presents itself with Zloty, who seems to be on the upswing after a runner-up finish in the Little Miss Magic Stakes at Gulfstream Park West on Oct. 24.

Thereafter purchased for $150,000 at the Keeneland November sale, Zloty now joins the hot barn of trainer Mike Stidham and, judging from a sharp bullet work on the main track leading up to this race, looks ready to continue her development.

She is well suited to the distance, owns one of the top last-race Beyer Speed Figures, an 86, and has a top Fair Grounds rider in Brian Hernandez Jr.

But what Zloty really offers is a price. She’s 10-1 on the morning line, and though that could be a little generous, something like 8-1 or so looks realistic.

Inaugural

Shifting to Tampa Bay Downs, the Inaugural Stakes showcases some juvenile colts and geldings on the main track, and there is little doubt that the public will fancy 10 1/4-length debut winner Ishaq.

Listed at 5-2 on the morning line, Ishaq seems far more likely to go off at 7-5 or shorter, and at those odds, there is too little reward for the risk of a bounce following a quick return from a maiden race in which he ran an 86 Beyer Speed Figure on Nov. 28.

:: Tampa Bay Downs: Get PPs, watch Saturday’s card live

That leaves me in Li’l Meatball’s corner. A Florida-bred stakes winner with five starts, Li’l Meatball is battle tested but lacks the flash that draws the betting public’s dollars. Listed at 4-1, he seems probable to drift up and is playable at 6-1 or more.

Although unraced at Tampa, Li’l Meatball is a winner at Gulfstream and Gulfstream Park West and doesn’t seem to be the kind of horse who is particular about the track over which he races. Never worse than fourth in his life and a two-time winner, he is simply an honest horse.

Lightning City

Immediately following the Inaugural, the Lightning City is a five-furlong turf dash for fillies and mares in which contention seems to run at least five deep.

Before seeing the morning line, I selected Joya Real, liking her consistency as a grass sprinter. Expecting her to be about the third choice, I was disappointed to see her a tepid 7-2 favorite when the morning line appeared Thursday.

If Joya Real is indeed 7-2, she’s a pass, but I suspect she is going to drift up, hopefully going off at 9-2 or higher – the odds needed to make her a worthwhile wager.

There are plenty of others in the race whom the public also figures to bet – like the consistent Katie’s Kiss, along with Desert Steel and Iroquois Girl, who come to Tampa with eye-catching running lines from California and New York, respectively.

Joya Real, on the other hand, has raced mostly at Parx and Monmouth – tracks deemed to offer a lesser quality of racing than the major tracks in California and New York. But dig through her running lines, and it’s obvious that she has faced some nice fillies on grass, running second to Ageless in The Very One Stakes at Pimlico and third to Lady Shipman and Jewel of a Cat in the Klassy Briefcase at Monmouth.

Joya Real also rallied to be second with a wide trip in the Turf Amazon in September at Parx, and that is consistently one of the best five-furlong turf sprints for females run each year.