Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Dec. 17: Picks for Harlan's Holiday, Sugar Bowl, Letellier Memorial

With five stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday and another six at Fair Grounds, there are betting options aplenty for horseplayers. And the Weekend Warrior plans to handicap those races, taking aim at the Harlan’s Holiday from Gulfstream and the Sugar Bowl and Letellier Memorial Stakes for 2-year-olds at Fair Grounds.

Harlan’s Holiday

There are numerous reasons to view Keen Ice as a likely winner of the 1 1/16-mile Harlan’s Holiday. The leading money earner in the field with more than $2.3 million, he comes off a third-place finish behind Arrogate and California Chrome in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and is now making the third start of his form cycle.

But there is also a compelling reason to view Keen Ice with some skepticism – his 2-for-18 record. A deep closer, Keen Ice has been far more likely to rally for pieces than victories, with the exceptions coming in a maiden win and in the 2015 Travers, when he ran down American Pharoah, who weakened after a speed duel with Frosted.

Given that Keen Ice is likely to go favored, I will take a shot with the comebacking Stanford, a quality speed horse who won this year’s Charles Town Classic.

Although I am typically reluctant to back horses off layoffs of six months or more, as is the case with Stanford, who is unraced since an eighth in the June 11 Met Mile, I will make an exception here. Trainer Todd Pletcher is known for regrouping at Gulfstream with horses who needed freshening, and they tend to return ready and outperform expectations.

Pletcher has a 39-for-111 record (35 percent) with horses returning from layoffs of six months or more at Gulfstream over the last five years. Even his returnees in graded stakes have gone 2 for 6.

A series of fast, steady workouts further point to a dynamic effort from Stanford. The last of those works I caught on video at xbtv.com, and it was accomplished easily, with Stanford traveling without the slightest urging to best workmate Madefromlucky, another entrant in the Harlan’s Holiday. Stanford also galloped out lengths in front.

Stanford won’t be a fat price – not with just seven horses in the field and several appearing to be outclassed – but he is the best alternative to probable favorite Keen Ice.

Sugar Bowl

Some degree of value should be available on Proforma despite just six horses being entered in the race for juveniles going six furlongs.

Running Mate figures to be all the rage at the betting windows after winning a first-level allowance by 7 3/4 lengths at 1-5 odds at Fair Grounds on Nov. 25. That triumph followed a six-length blowout at Delaware at 3-1 odds in his debut.

Running Mate seems to be a talented horse, and for a front-runner, he has shown the ability to finish his final quarter-mile in fast time. His virtues are just too apparent, all but assuring a skimpy price.

In search of more reward at the mutuel windows, I’m going with Proforma, who gamely won his maiden at Churchill Downs on Nov. 27. The group he defeated seemed to possess more raw talent than the allowance group Running Mate manhandled.

The 82 Beyer Speed Figure Proforma earned also matches up competitively with the 84 from Running Mate’s allowance victory and is just ahead of the 80 that Running Mate posted in winning first out.

Letellier Memorial

The Sugar Bowl’s sister race, the Letellier Memorial, follows five races later, is run for the same $50,000 purse, and also covers six furlongs on the main track.

With a trio of horses exiting the Grade 3 Delta Princess – third-place Flatter Up, fifth-place Forest Circle, and seventh-place Golden Mischief – I’m hopeful that Hotshot Anna will stick to her 6-1 morning line.

After finishing sixth in her debut at Arlington on Polytrack, a race in which she broke poorly and had to play catch-up to be sixth, she blew away maidens on dirt at Canterbury and followed up with a near-miss second in an allowance Nov. 27 over the Fair Grounds strip.

The latter race earned Hotshot Anna a 75 Beyer, tied for the highest last-race figure in the Letellier, along with Taleoftheprincess, who upset her in that allowance by speeding to the lead and lasting for a head victory.

However, Taleoftheprincess could be ripe for regression after improving her Beyer 18 points over her prior best from a $40,000 maiden-claiming win at Keeneland. Hotshot Anna, having run a 70 Beyer prior to her 75, appears more likely to run back to her fast last race.