Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Dec. 12: Picks for El Prado, Starlet, Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile
We have a Grade 1 stakes race Saturday, the $300,000 Starlet at Los Alamitos. On the other side of the nation, Gulfstream Park offers four $100,000 stakes, including the Grade 3 Rampart.
El Prado Stakes
At 7 1/2 furlongs on turf, there will be a short run to the first turn in this co-feature at Gulfstream, putting a premium on post position and trip.
For example, War Correspondent is a prime win threat here off his victory in the Appleton Stakes in his most recent start and his close third in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap two starts back. War Correspondent’s nine-month layoff doesn’t concern me that much because he is trained by Christophe Clement, who is as good as anyone in such situations.
But War Correspondent being marooned in post 11 is a major concern. He’ll have to drop farther back early than I would be comfortable with to avoid getting caught very wide on the first turn. Under the circumstances, it wouldn’t surprise me if the connections of War Correspondent now use this race as just a stone-cold prep for another race on the Gulfstream turf.
Aztec Brave will take a lot of beating because he projects to draw an absolute dream trip from his inside post. Plainview is very quick early, and Macagone is a one-way speed horse. Aztec Brave, winner of the West Virginia Speaker’s Cup three starts back and on the board in two stakes since, figures to tuck in right behind them. The problem is, every horseplayer will see this, so Aztec Brave will likely be overbet. And in truth, Aztec Brave had an easy trip last time in the Artie Schiller and couldn’t close the deal even if he was narrowly beaten.
I’m going with Tower of Texas, who also projects to pull a good trip, albeit from a little farther back, and he should be a better price than Aztec Brave. Tower of Texas was freshened since coming up empty in the Woodbine Mile, but he runs well fresh, and his prior three starts – his first three attempts on turf – were solid efforts. Tower of Texas’s victory in the one-mile King Edward Stakes was particularly strong, and he will get a pace setup Saturday similar to the one he got that day.
Starlet Stakes
Everyone but the winner of the Desi Arnaz Stakes at Del Mar, which served as the principal springboard to this event, is back on Saturday. And at the risk of infuriating the racing gods, I don’t want any of these four. The Arnaz was a fast-early sprint that completely disintegrated in the late stages. No one in that race, save perhaps the winner, Lucky Folie, who carved out the pace, distinguished themselves, and that’s putting it mildly. And now this quartet stretches out to a middle-distance route. No thank you.
Stays in Vegas is a solid play. Yes, Stays in Vegas ran on turf when she won stakes in her last two starts, and this race is on dirt. However, Stays in Vegas had acceptable prior dirt form – she won small stakes on dirt in her first two starts – and Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is excellent moving horses from turf to dirt. Moreover, Stays in Vegas’s two recent victories, even if they were on turf, were both around two turns. That’s a big plus in this field.
Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile
There is one horse in the body of this race who has not previously performed in a race restricted to Louisiana-breds. In addition, that horse comes into this off a maiden win at Churchill Downs that makes him about as fast as anyone in this field in terms of Beyer Figures. That horse is Bayou Banker, and one can only hope his morning-line of price of 8-1 will hold.
Bayou Banker was a front-running winner of a straight maiden route most recently, and I’m fine with him cutting back to six furlongs Saturday. Trainer Dallas Stewart has a big return on investment with such distance switches, and Bayou Banker’s one sprint attempt in his debut at Saratoga was not as hopeless as it seems on paper. He was shuffled back and checked the length of the backstretch that day.