Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Aug. 8: Picks for Whitney, De La Rose, Groupie Doll

The Grade 1 Whitney is one of the biggest races of any Saratoga meet, and Saturday’s $1.25 million edition tops a card that also includes the Grade 1, $500,000 Test and three other stakes.

Del Mar offers a pair of Grade 2 events – the $250,000 John C. Mabee and the Best Pal. And Gulfstream has a stakes-packed card headed by the $200,000 Dr. Fager and Desert Vixen divisions of the Florida Sire Stakes series.

Whitney Stakes

Even by Whitney standards, this is a pretty terrific renewal, with seven of the 10 entered being Grade 1 winners. And in many respects, one’s approach to handicapping this Whitney depends greatly on whether one thinks morning-line favorite Honor Code is really a two-turn horse.

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I always thought Honor Code was a router, but I have come to think otherwise. Honor Code, who was sensational in winning the Met Mile most recently even if a scorching early pace perfectly set up his cyclonic finish, has routed three times in his career. He went long two starts back in the Alysheba but never moved a muscle, finishing fifth, a dull performance I attributed at the time to an inability to handle the Churchill Downs main track.

Early last year, Honor Code went two turns in an allowance race at Gulfstream but was severely compromised by the pace in that race and lost in a blowout to the then-razor-sharp Social Inclusion. And at 2, Honor Code went two turns in the Remsen and won by a nose. However, in retrospect, considering that the Remsen was so oddly run – the half-mile and three-quarter fractions on a fast track were a glacier-like 52.74 seconds and 1:17.56 – that race is inconclusive in determining two-turn ability.

When you look at Honor Code’s past performances, particularly his last four starts, his profile as a deep one-turn closer comes into focus. The Alysheba was his only loss during that series of races. He was most impressive in winning a sprint in his comeback last November four starts back and followed with another big finish to win the Gulfstream Park Handicap, which, like the Metropolitan, was a one-turn mile.

Honor Code does get a favorable pace setup Saturday as Moreno and Liam’s Map figure to combine for honest, if not strong, fractions. But I also suspect that Honor Code is getting one turn too many.

There are a few attractive off-the-pace alternatives, such as the much-improved Noble Bird and the highly talented Lea. But if Tonalist is anything close to his 4-1 morning-line price, he would be a strong play.

Tonalist was no match for Honor Code when second in the Met Mile and was narrowly beaten at odds-on in the Suburban most recently. But Tonalist moved way too early in the Suburban, and he is much more at home in two-turn races like this than the one-turn Met Mile.

Tonalist’s quality is undeniable. He, of course, won the Belmont Stakes last year, and his win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last fall was top notch. And Tonalist had legitimate excuses in his two Saratoga losses last summer. He was a short horse when second in the Jim Dandy and was absurdly part of the early pace in the Travers.

De La Rose Stakes

There are many ways to go in this undercard stakes at Saratoga, but I can’t resist giving J Wonder a shot.

J Wonder was overmatched in the Grade 1 Just a Game most recently but now drops into a restricted stakes, one she can win off her good try in the Beaugay two starts back. J Wonder was compromised by an extremely slow pace in the Beaugay and was a bit bottled up on the rail in upper stretch, which is why she lost the show photo to Recepta. I’m betting she will cash in on a better pace setup this time.

Groupie Doll Stakes

The cutback in distance and sharp drop in class make Flashy American the one to beat. On the other hand, she is just 1 for her last 14. I’m taking a shot with Parc Monceau.

Parc Monceau ran on turf last time and went nine furlongs two back. One mile on dirt is her best game, and she returns to that on Saturday. Parc Monceau is the pace player here I most trust to get the distance, and she has back races good enough to win.