Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Aug. 6: Picks for West Virginia Derby, Whitney, La Jolla

The Grade 1, $1.25 million Whitney is the big race of the day Saturday and tops a card at Saratoga that also includes the Grade 1, $500,000 Test Stakes and three other stakes. But Mountaineer and Del Mar have important graded stakes action, too. The Grade 2, $750,000 West Virginia Derby is the main event at Mountaineer, while Del Mar offers the Grade 2, $200,000 Sorrento and the Grade 3, $150,000 La Jolla.

West Virginia Derby

I paid attention to last year’s West Virginia Derby card at Mountaineer, and what I saw was one of the craziest dead-rail track biases I’ve ever seen. I mean, horses running from the No. 3 path in on the main track looked like they were getting swallowed up in quicksand, and the wider you were, the better off you were. Now, Mountaineer is not a track I play. I have enough to handle with the two or three circuits I do play. But I’ve since learned that Mountaineer generally tends to favor outside runners, and a review of the result charts from recent days suggests that wide trips, if not outright favored, are still just fine.

This is noted because, while I am a fan of Cupid, I couldn’t play him from the No. 1 hole in this race, especially as the favorite. I thought Cupid’s Rebel Stakes win was the best fast-track Kentucky Derby prep this year, and it was nice to see him get back in the win column last time out in the Indiana Derby. But Cupid is at risk of getting pinned down inside by the other pace horses in this race, and that could be trouble for him.

:: WEST VIRGINIA DERBY: Get PPs, watch Saturday's card live on DRF.com

If Mountaineer is an outside looper’s track and plays that way Saturday, then why not go with Suddenbreakingnews, a confirmed outside closer? I’m throwing out Suddenbreakingnews’s ninth in the Belmont Stakes because the pace just wasn’t there for him that day. But two starts back, Suddenbreakingnews was a fine fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Yes, I know the pace set up for him that day, but he was clobbered early and was really flying late. And three back, he was a game second in the Arkansas Derby to Creator, the winner of the Belmont Stakes.

Economic Model is also dangerous here. Economic Model was a very smart winner of the Easy Goer Stakes two starts back but was the beaten favorite when second in the Dwyer Stakes most recently. However, Economic Model spent a critical part of the Dwyer racing on a profoundly dead rail, and his effort was actually much better than it looks on paper.

Whitney Stakes

There were a few astounding aspects to Frosted’s jaw-dropping victory in the Met Mile, such as the fact that his 14 1/4-length win margin was the largest in the race’s 123-year history, and the 123 Beyer Speed Figure he was assigned for his effort was the highest given out in the last nine years.

But one thing that struck me about Frosted’s Met Mile was that it occurred going a one-turn mile. Frosted is a legitimate route horse. He ran very well last year going 10 furlongs when fourth in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Travers (in which he was a pace sacrifice), and at 12 furlongs when second to American Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes. So, if anything, the stretch back out to two turns and the added distance of the Whitney is to Frosted’s benefit.

Even allowing for an inevitable regression, Frosted is going to be a handful Saturday. But while it might be folly, I’m giving Noble Bird a chance to upset him.

I liked Noble Bird in the Met Mile because I thought he might control the pace. He set the pace, but under pressure, and caved. But Noble Bird really should be the controlling speed Saturday, and when he was that two back going a route in the Pimlico Special, he romped in an effort that gives him a puncher’s chance here.

La Jolla Handicap

Liam the Charmer was a pick and bet by me in this space in the Rainbow Stakes in his last start, and I’m going right back to him here.

Liam the Charmer didn’t get the most helpful of rides in the Rainbow, being three to four wide throughout and in behind horses in upper stretch. Nevertheless, he finished strongly to be a narrowly beaten third and is well set up Saturday with ample early pace.