Saratoga

Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Aug. 29: Picks for Travers, Forego, Ballerina

Mike Watchmaker|Aug 27, 2015

Barbara D. Livingston Texas Red, shown training last weekend, is a tempting play in the Travers if he's anywhere close to his 8-1 morning-line odds.

There are many big days at Saratoga, but Saturday is the biggest of the big. It is not only Travers Day, it is also a Travers Day that includes Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. The Grade 1, $1.6 million Travers heads a blockbuster card that includes five other Grade 1 events – the Sword Dancer, Personal Ensign, Forego, Ballerina, and King’s Bishop – as well as the Grade 2 Ballston Spa. The only other graded stakes Saturday are a pair of Grade 3’s – the Smarty Jones at Parx and the Violet at Monmouth.

Travers Stakes

I am an unabashed fan of American Pharoah. He has dominated his generation for almost a year, winning seven Grade 1 races at seven different tracks at distances from seven to 12 furlongs. He deserves every compliment he has been given. Moreover, American Pharoah’s connections have been as classy as he has, sharing him with the public the way they have and running him in the races a horse of his stature should be running in. It didn’t have to go this way after American Pharoah broke the 37-year Triple Crown drought. So, the whole American Pharoah team deserves our thanks.

Okay, you might have sensed a big “but” coming, and here it is: If the morning line on the Travers is anything close to being right, American Pharoah isn’t even a consideration at 1-5, but Texas Red is in the neighborhood of 8-1.

Is American Pharoah the most likely winner of the Travers? Of course he is, and the racing fan in me will be rooting for him. He’s the most likely winner for the reasons mentioned above and because he is the controlling speed in this Travers, if not downright loose on the lead. Trainer Bob Baffert was candid about American Pharoah having to really convince him in his training to come to the Travers. It was as if Baffert was holding American Pharoah to an almost impossible standard because, as he has often said, he feels a responsibility handling a horse like this. And yet here American Pharoah is.

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The only way American Pharoah doesn’t win is if he doesn’t run close to his best. But even though I noted above how American Pharoah has been unfazed in all his experiences with new tracks, his inexperience with Saratoga in particular troubles me. Twelve of the last 20 Travers winners made their prior starts earlier in the Saratoga meet – 11 in the Jim Dandy, one in the Curlin. Obviously, eight of those 20 prepped elsewhere, but those eight made their starts at four other tracks, and only three came out of the Haskell, which American Pharoah won. I do think a prep over the track is important in the Travers.

And that leads me to Texas Red, who won the Jim Dandy and might be the best horse American Pharoah has faced. American Pharoah did wallop Texas Red in the FrontRunner last fall, but that was when Texas Red was just starting to get good. Texas Red came back to crush in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in the absence of American Pharoah in a performance that was as good as anything American Pharoah had done up to that point.

Texas Red missed the Triple Crown due to injury, but he showed he was all the way back when he got back to routing in the Jim Dandy. I loved Texas Red’s effort in that race. He had the dirty-work trip of keeping the pacesetter honest but still took the measure of the talented Frosted. If Texas Red really is around 8-1, he would be hard for me not to play.

Forego Stakes

I fear Private Zone might be loose early here, but even if he is, I can’t resist Tamarkuz.

Tamarkuz finished behind Private Zone when fourth in the Met Mile, but that was his U.S. debut, and he made a nice run that day. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, who’s having a terrific Saratoga meet, has had more time to work with Tamarkuz, and I anticipate a big effort from him.

Ballerina Stakes

La Verdad is in raging form, having won four straight, but I doubt she wants seven furlongs at this class level.

I loved Unbridled Forever’s victory at the distance over the track in the Shine Again in her seasonal debut. She really doesn’t have to improve much to win right back here, but I see no reason why she won’t.