Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Aug. 25: Picks for Travers Stakes, Sword Dancer Stakes, Pat O'Brien Stakes

It might not have the retired Triple Crown winner Justify, but the Travers Stakes is still the Travers – the Grade 1, $1.25 million centerpiece of this Saratoga meet and the high point of a Breeders’ Cup-like card Saturday that includes five other Grade 1 events. Those other Grade 1’s are the $1 million Sword Dancer, the $700,000 Personal Ensign, the $600,000 Forego, the $500,000 Ballerina, and the $500,000 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial. And let’s not forget about the Grade 2, $400,000 Ballston Spa Stakes.

There is also an important sprint stakes at Del Mar on Saturday, the Grade 2, $200,000 Pat O’Brien.

Travers Stakes

Good Magic, last year’s champion juvenile male, is first in line for active leadership in the 3-year-old male division. But while I wouldn’t be surprised if Good Magic followed up on his decisive victory in last month’s Haskell with another score here, I will be playing against him.

My reasons are twofold. Good Magic has had five starts this year, but he has yet to post a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure, falling short of matching or surpassing the 100 Beyer he received for winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That makes me wonder how much he has developed this year; if he really has taken a step forward at all.

I also wonder if Good Magic is a true 1 1/4-mile horse, the distance he must negotiate in the Travers. Sure, Good Magic finished second in the Kentucky Derby going 1 1/4 miles. But, really, Justify did every bit of the heavy lifting in the Derby, carving out what for most other horses would have been an unsustainable pace, and Good Magic still couldn’t make a dent on him late.

I’ve got issues with some others here, too. The filly Wonder Gadot has certainly improved since getting blinkers, beating Canadian-bred males in the first two legs of the Canadian Triple Crown. But even if this isn’t the strongest Travers field ever, she is still facing much tougher company.

I’m also against both horses out of what I thought was a weak Jim Dandy – Tenfold or Vino Rosso. And Mendelssohn was meek in his Dwyer loss, adding weight to the belief that his UAE Derby was due entirely to a strong track bias.

Catholic Boy got a long look from me. He was admirably game winning the Belmont Derby and Pennine Ridge over the talented Analyze It in his last two starts, and the last time he went turf to dirt, as he’s doing Saturday, he ran away with the Remsen. But I suspect Catholic Boy edged Analyze It at distances that are outside the latter’s range.

Gronkowski is my pick. I admit I didn’t like Gronkowski at all when he finished second to Justify in the Belmont Stakes in his U. S, debut, but he surprised me with a terrific performance. Going 1 1/2 miles in his first start in more than two months, and having to come from surprisingly far back into a slow pace, Gronkowski still rallied gamely to be clearly second-best. He doesn’t have to be nearly as far back early this time, and he might be even more effective at this shorter distance.

:: Wager on racing at Saratoga and Del Mar with DRF Bets

Sword Dancer Stakes

Spring Quality was good upsetting the Manhattan most recently, but he was originally scheduled to run in the Arlington Million, was scratched when he didn’t ship satisfactorily, and now reappears here having to go a quarter of a mile longer than he was supposed to in Chicago. I’ll pass.

I like Hi Happy to make amends for his loss as the favorite in the Bowling Green earlier in the Saratoga meet. The Bowling Green was run on a very deep course that I think Hi Happy simply couldn’t handle. However, he ran every bit as well if not better than Spring Quality two starts back when a close third in the Manhattan after contesting a strong pace that otherwise fell apart.

Pat O’Brien Stakes

Catalina Cruiser was gifted with an easy early lead when he romped in the San Diego earlier in the Del Mar meet. Maybe he’s a freak, but I’m not sold just yet.

I’m also skeptical of reigning male sprint champ Roy H as he was flat when walloped by Ransom the Moon in the Big Crosby in his U.S. return, which was unsettling considering Roy H has a history of running well fresh.

I liked Del Mar lover Ransom the Moon in the Crosby and I like him to score right back Saturday.