Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Aug. 22: Picks for Pacific Classic, Monmouth Oaks, Del Mar Handicap

The biggest day of the Del Mar meet is at hand Saturday, with the Grade 1, $1 million Pacific Classic topping a card that also includes two Grade 2, $250,000 stakes – the Pat O’Brien and the Del Mar Handicap.

It’s also a big day at Saratoga, thanks to one of that meet’s traditional highlights, the Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama Stakes.

Pacific Classic

I’m a big fan of Beholder and have been for years. She is class personified. And I totally understand why her connections would take a shot in this Pacific Classic. It’s a $1 million race right in her backyard against a collection of good but not exactly imposing males. However, I wouldn’t even wager Monopoly money on her.

Beholder has made 18 career starts over four seasons, and this will not only be her first attempt against males, it will also be her first start at a distance as far as 1 1/4 miles. In fact, she has only raced as far as 1 1/8 miles twice in her career. Maybe the added distance won’t matter. And maybe she is decidedly better than this particular group of males. But Beholder’s projected price – she’s the morning-line favorite, and I don’t think she will be any higher than second choice – makes the risk of betting on her hardly worthwhile.

There are big questions about other prominent players in here, too. I wanted to find a way to like Bayern because he looks loose on the lead, and the Del Mar main track seems tighter these days, which I think he will like. But Bayern’s three performances this year, including his improved third last time in the San Diego Handicap, just were not good.

Conversely, Catch a Flight, the winner of the San Diego as well as the Californian and Precisionist three and four starts back, is in sharp form. However, there is reason to question whether he is as effective going 1 1/4 miles at this level.

If ever a race looked like a good spot for a new face, it is this one. Red Vine, my play, is that new face.

Red Vine was a revelation when moved to dirt for the first time late last year, winning his first three starts over the surface, including a legitimately impressive score two starts back in the Majestic Light in which he spread-eagled a field of horses capable of running very fast on their best day. Red Vine was beaten for the first time on dirt most recently when second in the Salvator Mile, but even that was a fine effort as he was compromised by a slow pace.

It is true that Red Vine is meeting better company Saturday, but strong recent Beyer Speed Figures say he can handle the class jump. Moreover, he projects to sit a good stalking trip that will give him first run on the deeper closers, and he has back races on turf that say he will get the distance.

Monmouth Oaks

There are many ways to go here, and Indiana Oaks winner High Dollar Woman would be dangerous if the track is still wet from late-week rain because her wet-track races really are a cut above. But I prefer Light the City.

Light the City was solid early this year, with second-place finishes in the Las Virgenes and the Santa Ysabel, only to go completely south in the Santa Anita Oaks and Acorn in her next two starts. Light the City didn’t even finish in the Santa Anita Oaks, and she never lifted a hoof in the Acorn despite being one of the few in that race to not have trouble. However, Light the City rebounded big time most recently with a strong allowance win over the Monmouth track. Notably, all the others involved in the early pace with Light the City that day wound up badly beaten.

Del Mar Handicap

You have to respect Whittingham and San Luis Rey winner Ashleyluvssugar in this spot, but I’m going with Big John B.

Big John B reached new heights at Del Mar last summer when he ran away with this race, and I think he’s repeating the pattern and reaching peak form again now. In fact, Big John B’s win in the Cougar II last time tells me just how sharp he is, as that was his best race ever on dirt by far.