Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Aug. 13: Picks for Arlington Million, Fourstardave, American St. Leger

Saturday is one of the few weekend racing days of the summer when the stakes spotlight is not squarely on Saratoga or Del Mar, and that is because it is Arlington Million Day. The Grade 1, $1 million Arlington Million heads a card at Arlington Park that features four other graded stakes, including the Grade 1, $700,000 Beverly D. and the Grade 1, $450,000 Secretariat.

Meanwhile, at Saratoga, the main events are the Grade 1, $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap and the Grade 2, $200,000 Adirondack, while the feature at Del Mar is the Grade 2, $200,000 Best Pal Stakes.

Arlington Million

There are major questions surrounding the main players in this Million. Tryster is the morning-line favorite off three solid races early this year in Dubai, but he didn’t run nearly as well in his first 10 career starts or in his one start since, and it makes you wonder if he was just a horse for that course.

World Approval is in career form, but do you want to take a short price on a horse who, in his win most recently in the United Nations Stakes, had a dream trip chasing a 75-1 shot through a slow early pace?

Wake Forest was compromised by the slow pace when third in the U.N., but I wonder if he’s good enough. I have the same question with Decorated Knight, who comes off a Group 3 win over six opponents in Ireland. I seriously question whether Mondialiste, the winner of the Woodbine Mile last fall, wants this 1 1/4-mile distance, and there is reason to wonder if The Pizza Man is the horse he was when he won this race last year.

I have questions about Deauville, too, but I’m still going with him. Again.

Deauville was a play in this space last time out when he won the Belmont Derby, and if you want, you could find faults with his winning performance. For one, Deauville’s final time was slower than the fine filly Catch a Glimpse posted in winning the Belmont Oaks despite the paces being comparable. And a case can be made that third-place finisher Beach Patrol, who goes in the Secretariat, was best after a difficult trip.

However, I do think that Deauville might have loafed once he hit the front in the stretch of the Belmont Derby, so his effort may have been better than it looks on paper. Moreover, I find it intriguing that instead of keeping Deauville with straight 3-year-olds in the Secretariat, trainer Aidan O’Brien is pitting him against older horses in this race.

Since 2011, O’Brien is 4 for 10 at Arlington. His winners were Cape Blanco in the 2011 Arlington Million and Highland Reel, Adelaide, and Treasure Beach in three editions of the Secretariat. O’Brien knows what kind of horse it takes to win these races, and I’m trusting his race placement in this instance.

Fourstardave Handicap

The weather forecast for Saratoga is dire, with the potential for heavy rain Friday through Sunday. But I’m going on the assumption that this Grade 1 event will stay on the turf.

I originally was disappointed that Tourist didn’t win the Shoemaker Mile most recently. He looked like he was 1-5 turning for home but couldn’t get by Midnight Storm, losing by a half-length. But in retrospect, I think I was too critical of Tourist. Midnight Storm is iron on the lead when he is on his game, and he is on his game these days, as he came back to win the Eddie Read Stakes at Del Mar.

Ring Weekend will be tough off an excellent second in the Dixie Stakes following a long layoff and because of his love for “off” turf, but I’m siding with Tourist.

American St. Leger

Da Big Hoss is very much the one to beat. But he’s also going to be a strong favorite, and Wasir is an appealing alternative at a price out of respect for his trainer, Andreas Wohler.

Wohler, who won the 2001 Arlington Million with Silvano, has brought competitive stakes performers such as Seismos, Scalo, Kapitale, and Wake Forest to North America in recent years, so he knows the sort of horse it takes to compete here. Wasir is getting big class relief after making his last start in the Ascot Gold Cup, he won’t have any trouble with the 1 11/16-mile distance, and I like that William Buick takes the mount.