Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Aug. 12: Picks for Fourstardave, Beverly D., Pucker Up
A great weekend of turf racing is on tap from coast to coast, with the focus on Arlington Park for Arlington Million Day. That’s annually one of my favorite race days here in the United States since we occasionally get to see some nice European invaders take on some of our best domestic grass runners.
This year’s Million seems like a bit of a scramble to me, so I’m passing on that race. Two of the graded stakes on grass for fillies and mares are appealing, and the Fourstardave Handicap from Saratoga looks to be a solid wagering opportunity as well, even with a relatively short field.
Fourstardave Handicap
Time Test likely will be favored for Chad Brown, but his U.S. form (and European form, for that matter) leaves something to be desired. His U.S. debut resulted in a disappointing loss to longshot Smooth Daddy, and his subsequent effort in the Manhattan on Belmont Stakes Day didn’t do anything to get the blood pumping. At a short price, I’ll look elsewhere.
:: Just reduced! Save on Clocker Reports for Del Mar and Saratoga
Disco Partner has been sensational this season for Christophe Clement, and if he’s able to navigate two turns, he’ll be a handful. This son of Disco Rico broke land-speed records in winning the Jaipur at six furlongs two starts back and followed up on that effort with a visually impressive score in the Forbidden Apple at Belmont Park.
I didn’t love that Disco Partner hopped back to his left lead late in the Forbidden Apple, but his current form is too strong to ignore. I’ll play him to win at odds of 3-1 or greater.
Beverly D. Stakes
This year’s Beverly D. is fantastic, and a case can be made for nearly the entire field of 10 fillies and mares. Two runners caught my attention when watching tape for this race: Dona Bruja and Grand Jete.
Dona Bruja has done nothing wrong in two starts in the U.S. and was visually exceptional in both. She’s been installed as the tepid 7-2 morning-line favorite, but I won’t be surprised if she floats up slightly.
Grand Jete has been equally impressive from a visual standpoint for Brown, who has had the Beverly D. circled for this filly for quite some time. Her most recent start at Belmont was nothing more than a means to an end, and her effort two starts back in the Eatontown at Monmouth was fantastic. Grand Jete packs an electric turn of foot, and if she gets some pace help early, she’ll make her presence felt late. My pick is Grand Jete, and I’ll play her at odds of 9-2 or greater.
Pucker Up Stakes
Trainer Brad Cox is having a breakout year, and he enters two of the more intriguing fillies in this year’s Pucker Up, the nightcap on Arlington Million Day. Both Dontmesswithjoanne and Sensitive appear to be legitimate contenders, but I slightly prefer Sensitive.
Dontmesswithjoanne ran better than it looks on paper in the Ta Wee at Indiana Grand most recently, getting hung very wide throughout before finishing nicely. Sensitive encountered a similar trip in her most recent run at Ellis Park, albeit against softer company.
There are a couple of things that make Sensitive the more interesting contender. First, the race at Ellis was her first start since October of her 2-year-old season. Second, that race was her first start for Cox, and she showed tremendous improvement. The only real knock is her price. I can’t envision her sticking anywhere near her 12-1 morning-line odds, but I’ll play Sensitive at odds of 4-1 or greater.