Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Aug. 1: Picks for West Virginia Derby, Amsterdam, Jim Dandy

Saratoga “only” has one Grade 1 and three Grade 2 events on its Saturday card. The Grade 1 event is the $350,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap, but the richest race on the program is the $600,000 Jim Dandy, the local springboard to the Travers on Aug. 29.

There also are big doings at Del Mar and Mountaineer. Del Mar’s feature is the Grade 1, $300,000 Clement L. Hirsch, which lured Beholder, the two-time champ who is again the top older female racehorse in the nation. Mountaineer has an all-stakes, nine-race card topped by the Grade 2, $750,000 West Virginia Derby.

West Virginia Derby

The morning-line favorite is Madefromlucky, but while he is a contender, he will be overbet relative to his actual chances of winning. Fans might fall for Madefromlucky because he ran against American Pharoah in three of his last four starts, and he won the Peter Pan Stakes in his other recent outing. But while you can’t really hold the fact that Madefromlucky wasn’t even remotely competitive against American Pharoah against him, the fact is he wasn’t, and his Peter Pan win was only okay at best.

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Even though I expect him to be less than his morning-line odds of 10-1, I like Iron Fist. Iron Fist kept very good company in his three starts at Del Mar last year – he was the second choice behind American Pharoah and finished ahead of him and Calculator when second in his second start – and has been much better this year on dirt. He was a narrowly beaten second sprinting in his dirt debut at Santa Anita off an eight-month layoff and followed with two fine victories there in his first two attempts routing.

In the first of those, Iron Fist prevailed despite being caught four wide on the first turn and being subjected to serious pace pressure. He had an easier trip most recently and scored decisively while not being asked for anywhere near his best.

Iron Fist is clearly improving, but he was meant to be a good one. He was a $1.55 million yearling purchase and is a half-brother to Grade 1 stakes winner Sweet Lulu and a full brother to the talented Anchor Down.

Tommy Macho also is dangerous. I picked Tommy Macho against Speightster and Texas Red in the Dwyer Stakes, and he was third-best behind those two. But if I took Tommy Macho against those kinds of horses (Texas Red will be a handful in the Jim Dandy, and Speightster might well win the Grade 1 King’s Bishop later this month), I certainly can use him in this less heady spot, especially when he might be a reasonably decent price.

Amsterdam Stakes

Barbados might have been the beaten favorite when second in the recent Carry Back Stakes, but the fact that he ran even that well was to his credit, and he is my play in this undercard stakes at Saratoga.

Barbados was making his first start in more than four months in the Carry Back due to a knee injury that required minor surgery. Not only that, he faced an insane half-mile fraction of 43.76 seconds, which was faster than older horses went in the Princess Rooney and Smile Sprint in the next two races. But Barbados rallied gamely to fall just a length short, and I fully expect him to improve on that outing.

Notably, Barbados was 3 for 3 on dirt before the Carry Back, including solid scores in the Spectacular Bid and Hutcheson early this year at Gulfstream.

Jim Dandy Stakes

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As mentioned earlier, I expect Texas Red to be a handful in this event, and I say that with all respect for Frosted, a game second in the Belmont Stakes, a terrific fourth in the Kentucky Derby as the only one to rally significantly into a slow pace, and a decisive winner of the Wood Memorial.

However, Texas Red was a very good second in the Dwyer after middle-moving in his first start back from a foot injury that knocked him out of the Triple Crown races. And now, Texas Red stretches out to two turns, where he ran away with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall and at which he does his best work. Texas Red won’t be a price, but he won’t be the favorite, either. I think he’s 50-50 to win, so anything over even-money is value.