Weekend Warrior for Saturday, April 8: Picks for Santa Anita Derby, Ashland, Wood
It’s a stakes extravaganza Saturday, with huge cards at Santa Anita, Keeneland, and Aqueduct.
Santa Anita has six stakes on its card, led by the Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby and the Grade 1, $400,000 Santa Anita Oaks. Keeneland also has two Grade 1 races – the $500,000 Ashland and the $300,000 Madison – but most eyes will be on one of Keeneland’s three other stakes, the Grade 2, $1 million Blue Grass, which might be the deepest Kentucky Derby prep of the year. Aqueduct has a Grade 1 event as one of its five stakes – the $400,000 Carter – but the real feature is the Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial.
Santa Anita Derby
You don’t have to be a pace wizard to notice how many early-speed types are in this Santa Anita Derby. Moreover, they’re all drawn toward the outside, suggesting that most will go in hopes of getting over and saving some ground by the first turn, which should only lock in a hot pace. So, unless Santa Anita’s main track is speed-biased Saturday, this race figures to be won by a horse who can settle early.
Iliad settled early when second in the San Felipe Stakes to the injured Mastery, the best 3-year-old male we’ve seen all year. Iliad was game, but he was also beaten a long way and seemed out of gas in the late stages. He remains a big question mark around two turns.
My feeling is that the allowance route last month in which Battle of Midway held off Reach the World will have a big impact in this spot. Battle of Midway was wide all the way around the track that day and held determinedly, but I’m going with Reach the World. Reach the World got a world’s worth of education in that narrow loss, racing between horses and in traffic much of the way and coming from well off the pace, which was a stark change in style from the front-running win he recorded two starts back. I think Reach the World will improve a lot off that outing.
Ashland Stakes
Daddys Lil Darling, Elate, and Pretty City Dancer are the three morning-line favorites, but I don’t find them imposing. Daddys Lil Darling is probably well suited going from turf to dirt Saturday and likes the track, as she was a rallying second in the Grade 1 Alcibiades last fall, but she also has a career-best Beyer Speed Figure on dirt of only 71. I doubt Elate is really as fast as that 88 Beyer she earned in winning her debut at Aqueduct last fall, and I don’t think getting squeezed a bit at the start when third in the Honeybee last time cost her at all, and she had little stretch kick.
And Pretty City Dancer is too much of a head case for me. Gawking at the crowd cost her the sole win in the Spinaway last summer, and she seemed completely unfocused last time in the Davona Dale despite adding blinkers, which now come off.
I like Summer Luck. Summer Luck was a close and gaining third in the Davona Dale in a performance that was better than it looks on paper. She was nudged along to hold position through a quick second quarter-mile and wasn’t helped when a tiring opponent floated her wide during the stretch run. But Summer Luck still finished determinedly and galloped out past the wire in front like a filly who will appreciate the added distance she gets Saturday.
Wood Memorial
Cloud Computing is my strong preference here. Cloud Computing delivered a huge effort when second most recently in the Gotham Stakes to J Boys Echo, who has a big shot to upset the Blue Grass if he can overcome the lack of pace in that race. Not only was the Gotham just the second career start and first attempt around two turns for Cloud Computing, he was also much closer to the early pace than J Boys Echo, a pace that was too fast for the slow track that day and which otherwise disintegrated.
Obviously, Irish War Cry and Battalion Runner will be formidable foes if they can run back to their best performances at Gulfstream. I’m less fearful of Mo Town, even if he is returning to the scene of his decisive score in the Remsen. No one has run well out of that Remsen, including Mo Town, a tired fifth in the Risen Star in his 3-year-old debut.