Weekend Warrior for Saturday, April 29: Picks for Thunder Road, Powder Break, Elusive Quality
Not surprisingly, the stakes schedule on the Saturday before the Kentucky Derby is light. The day’s biggest races are the Thunder Road at Santa Anita, the Miami Mile at Gulfstream, and the San Francisco Mile at Golden Gate, all Grade 3, $100,000 events at a mile on turf.
Thunder Road Stakes
The big question here is which Bolo will show up? If it’s the Bolo who rallied relentlessly to win the Arcadia at this distance and over this course last February following a seven-month layoff, or if it’s the Bolo who followed with a third in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile, then the rest of this field is in trouble.
But if it’s the Bolo who was perfectly placed early in the Grade 1 Maker’s 46 Mile most recently only to back up and finish ninth of 11, then he’s vulnerable even with the class drop.
I’m going against Bolo and taking Perfectly Majestic.
Perfectly Majestic’s narrow loss last time out in the Joe Hernandez Stakes on the downhill course was a strong effort. He was nosed out by Stormy Liberal, who came back to win the Siren Lure handily and might be the best turf sprinter in California right now. And if anything, Perfectly Majestic will like the added distance he gets Saturday.
Perfectly Majestic’s races two and three starts back are throw-outs. He had run on the rail in the stretch of the San Marcos two back but had to check in midstretch and was kept in hand for the remainder of that race, and he was out of his element in the slop three back in the off-the-turf San Gabriel.
But four starts back, Perfectly Majestic won a tough allowance race going nine furlongs over Itsinthepost, the winner of the recent San Luis Rey and Elkhorn, and five back, he was a narrowly beaten second in the Lure, notably at this distance and over this course.
Powder Break Stakes
This is the co-feature at Gulfstream, for females going one mile on turf, and Stormy Victoria is much the one to beat off seconds last year in the Athenia and De La Rose stakes in New York. Stormy Victoria is coming off a five-month layoff, but she won her U.S. debut last year off a longer break and is backed by a top layoff trainer in Christophe Clement.
That said, I can’t resist Lori’s Store. Lori’s Store’s first two races back off a seven-month absence in the Sand Springs and Honey Fox stakes might look only okay even if they were against the high-class Celestine, but they were actually much better than they look on paper.
Lori’s Store’s late kick was severely compromised by slow early paces in both of those races, especially the Honey Fox, in which Lori’s Store made a nice three-wide run on the far turn despite the poor setup. Most importantly, Lori’s Store tried hard both times and earned Beyer Speed Figures that suggest she is still very much the same mare who won the 2016 Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf. She now lands in an easier spot and is in line for a much more favorable pace setup.
Elusive Quality Stakes
This is the feature at Belmont, and I’m using it because, frankly, I didn’t have any better options. I couldn’t pick against Syndergaard in the William Walker at Churchill Downs, and I have no feel for the San Francisco Mile.
I took a long look at Siding Spring. It’s good that Siding Spring is focusing on turf, the surface he was intended for at the beginning of his career, and this is an easier spot than he was in last time, when fourth in the Appleton, won by All Included, who will be a handful in the Miami Mile.
I just wish Siding Spring held on a bit better in the Appleton because the pace he set was unremarkable compared with that card’s other turf races.
Disco Partner looks too tough. Disco Partner ran well in every one of his 10 career turf starts, including a win in the Troy and a near miss in the Jaipur on this course last year. Disco Partner now makes his first start for Clement, and though he’s coming off a seven-month layoff, he won his 2016 debut off a similar break.