Weekend Warrior for Saturday, April 28: Picks for Elusive Quality Stakes, William Walker Stakes, Californian Stakes

Saturday’s stakes schedule is light, as one might expect one week before the Kentucky Derby Day crush. There are only three graded stakes on the docket, two are at Santa Anita: the Grade 2, $200,000 Californian, and the Grade 3, $100,000 Santa Barbara; and the third is the Grade 3 Whimsical at Woodbine.

Elsewhere, the $125,000 Elusive Quality is the feature on the first Saturday card of the Belmont spring-summer meet, and the $100,000 William Walker is the headliner on the opening-night card at Churchill Downs.

Elusive Quality Stakes

Disco Partner is one of the best turf sprinters in the country, even if he was a soundly beaten third in the Shakertown in his 2018 bow. While he is not in this extended turf sprint, his presence is felt through the form lines of Ready for Rye and Kharafa.

In his last attempt on turf four starts back, Ready for Rye was a game second in the Belmont Turf Sprint to Disco Partner, who came back to finish a narrowly beaten third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar, earning a second straight triple-digit Beyer Figure.

Kharafa, meanwhile, finished a good second to Disco Partner when he made his 2017 bow in this same race, something he is doing again this year. Notably, Disco Partner followed that win over Kharafa with victories in the Jaipur on the Belmont Stakes undercard (going six furlongs on the Widener turf course in a ridiculous 1:05.67) and in the Forbidden Apple, earning strong Beyers of 109 and 105.

Clearly, if Ready for Rye or Kharafa are able to duplicate those seconds to Disco Partner last year, they will be serious win threats here. I’m going against both, however. Ready for Rye’s last two efforts were just too dull for me to go for him, and Kharafa, as consistent as he is, simply doesn’t win as often as he did in his younger days.

Undrafted, who has earned nearly $1.5 million almost entirely through his exploits in turf sprints – which means he has banked that money the hard way – will have his supporters. But Undrafted will be making his first start in almost six months, and while he won twice going a mile on turf early in his career, he has always been most effective at distances shorter than this seven furlongs.

I like Conquest Panthera, who suitably cuts back to a turf sprint after a useful outing going two turns earlier this month in his first start of the year. In his final outing of 2017, Conquest Panthera finished a gaining third in the Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship, beaten only a little more than a length for it all by Rainbow Heir, who came back to dominate the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint with a 105 Beyer.

Something close to that effort from Conquest Panthera, or close to his win in the Play the King Stakes last summer over the then red-hot Dowse’s Beach going this distance, might well be good enough Saturday.

William Walker Stakes

Beckford might be much the best here. Last year, he won a Group 2 stakes and finished second in two Group 1’s in Ireland before being beaten just two lengths by highly regarded Kentucky Derby candidate Mendelssohn in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. But Beckford hasn’t raced in almost six months, and this will be his first encounter with the fast paces found in U.S. turf sprints.

I’m going with Masked, who is 2 for 2 since moving to turf. While both of Masked’s grass wins came on Santa Anita’s downhill course, I think his California speed will transfer well to this more conventional turf sprint.

Californian Stakes

This is not a race I would normally include in the Warrior because it has a short field and a likely winner in Dr. Dorr. But there isn’t much else of national interest to pick from, and I am intrigued by Full of Luck’s mere presence in this race.

Full of Luck, who gets the tiniest of flyers from me, switches to dirt after making all 15 of his career starts on turf, including an uninspiring try in the San Francisco Mile in his recent U.S. debut. Maybe trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is doing the racing office a favor by help fill the field with this horse. Or maybe Full of Luck, who has a dirt-oriented pedigree, might actually like dirt. He does sport two good works on dirt since his last start, and it’s interesting jockey Flavien Prat sticks with him.