Weekend Warrior for Saturday, April 23: Picks for Charles Town Classic, Elkhorn, Henry Clark
Charles Town has command of center stage Saturday, with the Grade 2, $1.25 million Charles Town Classic being easily the most important race of the day. There are but two other graded stakes Saturday – the Grade 2, $250,000 Elkhorn at Keeneland and the Grade 2, $200,000 Great Lady M at Los Alamitos Race Course.
Charles Town Classic
Regular readers of the Warrior know that I’m a big fan of Donworth. I liked him two starts back in the San Antonio in his return from a layoff and thought he ran a terrific race in finishing third after contesting the pace. I took him right back last time out in the Santa Anita Handicap, was displeased when he was taken back off a pace I expected him to control, and then saw him clip heels into the far turn, which effectively eliminated whatever chance he still had.
With that said, you might expect me to side with Donworth yet again in this spot. Maybe I’ll regret it, but I’m not. Donworth squandered a great pace-controlling opportunity in the Big Cap, and his people have since announced that they learned from that and will allow him to run freely Saturday. Here’s the trouble with Donworth: There are two stretch-out sprinters and one former sprinter with positional speed breaking immediately to his inside, and another opponent with speed in Stanford is breaking a few boxes to his outside. This time, getting involved in the early pace might prove harmful to Donworth’s chances.
This year’s Santa Anita Handicap was much maligned at the time, but it’s possible that it was a stronger race than people think. Effinex, who finished third, and Melatonin, who won the Big Cap in front-running fashion, came back to finish one-two in last week’s Oaklawn Handicap. You might say, “Big deal, they both figured to run well at Oaklawn,” and you would be right. However, Point Piper, who finished fifth in the Big Cap, finished third in the Oaklawn Handicap as the longest shot on the board at 41-1. The only three out of the Big Cap filled the first three spots in the Oaklawn Cap. That, to me, is proof that it was a strong race.
There are two others here who come out of the Big Cap – Imperative and Hard Aces. I can’t take Imperative, who hasn’t found the winner’s circle since he upset this race in 2014. But I am going with Hard Aces.
The 1 1/8 miles that Hard Aces gets Saturday might not be far enough for him. But Hard Aces, who split Melatonin and Effinex to finish second in the Big Cap, will be a good price, so that mitigates the distance concerns. The pace in the Big Cap held together. Hard Aces was the only horse to make an effective run from off the pace, and he gets a more favorable pace setup now.
I’m afraid of Page McKenney, a serious horse in search of his fifth straight win. But I think he will be much shorter than his morning line of 6-1.
Elkhorn Stakes
Twilight Eclipse, Kaigun, and Up With the Birds might be likely suspects here. But there is a real chance that age has caught up with the 7-year-old Twilight Eclipse, Kaigun finishes second too often for my liking, and I’m not sure that 12 furlongs is the best game for Up With the Birds.
Da Big Hoss is my play. Da Big Hoss did not run well in two of his last three starts, but those dull outings came at Gulfstream, and I sense that he just did not do well there. All of his other starts since the Mike Maker claim last summer were solid, and a duplicate of his big score in the Connally two starts back wins this.
Henry S. Clark Stakes
Cage Fighter is one of a handful making their 2016 debuts in this headliner at Laurel, but he’s the one I want.
Cage Fighter will be making his first start since being overmatched in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. However, he won his 2015 debut off a longer layoff, so he can fire fresh. Most importantly, Cage Fighter was in career form prior to the Breeders’ Cup, recording a win in the PTHA President’s Cup and a near miss in the Knickerbocker, performances that look strong in this spot.