Weekend Warrior for Saturday, April 22: Picks for Charles Town Classic, Elkhorn, Mizdirection

People of a certain age remember when Charles Town was home to some of the cheapest claimers in the country. Not anymore, and certainly not on Saturday, when Charles Town offers by far the richest race of the weekend – the Grade 2, $1.25 million Charles Town Classic.

Other races of note Saturday include the Grade 2, $200,000 Californian and the Grade 3, $100,000 San Juan Capistrano at Santa Anita; the Grade 2, $250,000 Elkhorn at Keeneland; and the Grade 3, $250,000 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne.

Charles Town Classic

Stanford won this race last year and is in sharp form, having won the Challenger last time out and narrowly missing in the Poseidon two starts back. Stanford will be favored Saturday to defend his title, but he’s vulnerable. He got away with a very slow early pace when he won the 2016 Charles Town Classic and was loose on the lead when he won the Challenger.

Stanford will not enjoy an uncontested lead this time, however. Cautious Giant is a stretch-out sprinter from Southern California with back class whose sole purpose in this race would appear to be to ensure an honest pace for his uncoupled stablemates, Imperative and War Story. Unless something weird happens, Stanford won’t control the front end, and I’m not sold on him being as effective when he doesn’t.

This will be Imperative’s fourth straight start in this event, and he won it back in 2014. He also edged Stanford in the Poseidon in January. But Imperative never ran a step in the Santa Anita Handicap most recently, finishing a distant ninth and last, and I can’t endorse a horse coming off a no-show like that, even if the pace sets up for him.

And while it is true that Imperative rebounded from poor efforts when he won the Poseidon and the Big Bear Stakes last fall, he won those races off layoffs. He has had no layoff after a bad race this time.

Sunny Ridge is my play. Sunny Ridge is in much better form right now than he was when he was a distant third behind War Story in the Queens County three starts back, having won the Jazil and the Stymie in his last two outings. Sunny Ridge’s Stymie was particularly good as he beat Send It In, who came back to win the Excelsior with a staggering 119 Beyer Speed Figure.

And if forecasted rain materializes, Sunny Ridge will be fine. He was a narrowly beaten second in the Delta Downs Jackpot at 2 to Exaggerator in that one’s beloved slop and, notably, on a tight-turned track similar to Charles Town.

Elkhorn Stakes

Itsinthepost ships in from California in career form, having won the San Luis Rey most recently on top of seconds in the San Marcos and San Gabriel in his prior two starts. But I question how strong those races really were, and looked elsewhere.

Bigger Picture will take a lot of beating. His victory in the Red Smith last fall was strong, and he was at a disadvantage last time out when a close fourth in the Mac Diarmida, having to duke it out between horses in the stretch after his rider lost the whip turning for home. But I prefer Red Rifle.

Red Rifle was very good in 2015, when he won the Bowling Green and finished second to the top-class Flintshire in the Sword Dancer, only to have a lost and abbreviated campaign last year. But Red Rifle returned from an eight-month layoff last month at Gulfstream with a performance that, even in defeat, suggests he is poised to regain top form.

He was boxed in all through the far turn, angled in for room in upper stretch, found none there, angled back out in midstretch, and finished fast, all while the race was actually speeding up. It was a big effort yet one Red Rifle can improve on.

Mizdirection Stakes

This is the third of three stakes at Santa Anita and the only ungraded one, but it is by far the best betting race of the three. I like Watch This Cat.

Watch This Cat might not have the class lines of some others in this field, but she found her niche in downhill turf races like this one with dominating scores in her first two attempts on this unique course last fall. She was the speed in those races, and she’s the inside speed Saturday.