Weekend Warrior for Saturday, April 16: Picks for Oaklawn Handicap, Ben Ali, Arkansas Derby
With only three weeks until the big day, the Kentucky Derby prep season ends Saturday with the Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. The Grade 2, $750,000 Oaklawn Handicap is the main supporting feature.
There is one other stakes for 3-year-olds Saturday – the Grade 3, $150,000 Lexington at Keeneland. But the Lexington does not offer enough points to get any of its entrants into the Kentucky Derby should the Derby draw 20 or more, which is expected.
Oaklawn Handicap
It’s conjecture how much the hives Effinex was showing prior to the Santa Anita Handicap affected his performance. Effinex was a soundly beaten third as the 7-5 favorite. Nevertheless, Effinex’s effort in the Big Cap was a step back from his best performances in 2015, such as his second to American Pharoah in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, his victory over Tonalist in the Suburban, or his win in the Clark.
In fairness to Effinex, he was making his first start in 3 1/2 months in the Big Cap, so he has a license to benefit from the outing. Still, Effinex has run big fresh before. Perhaps more importantly, Effinex’s emergence last year was so surprising that it is incumbent upon him to validate his breakout 2015 with strong efforts this year. Whatever the reason, Effinex’s Big Cap was not strong, and I’m not betting a horse with something to prove in a spot like this, especially as the favorite.
Upstart and Blofeld will have backers, but I’m not sold on them. Upstart won the Razorback, the local prep for this, off a six-month layoff. But Upstart is known to run big fresh, and a duplicate of that performance won’t be good enough. Blofeld, who fell off the radar after an exciting 2-year-old season, emerged from witness protection and prevailed in the Gulfstream Park Handicap most recently. But Blofeld was lucky. Valid was going to win if he wasn’t clobbered in the stretch, and now Blofeld stretches out to make his two-turn debut.
Melatonin upset the Santa Anita Handicap, and I’m taking him to win right back. Melatonin actually also got a bit lucky in the Big Cap. I thought Donworth would go right to the front in that one, but when he took back, that sprung Melatonin, who wound up being the main speed.
Melatonin fell into the right trip in the Big Cap, but he did run well. Melatonin simply drew off from his field, earned a strong 107 Beyer Speed Figure, and is now 2 for 2 in dirt routes. He should go right to the front again Saturday and can lead this group through another merry chase.
Ben Ali Stakes
Noble Bird’s sixth at Oaklawn in his 2016 debut wasn’t quite as bad as it looks on paper. He resented being hard held early, was four to five wide around the track, and did make a little run into the far turn. It was not a good effort, though, and Noble Bird seems far removed from the form he showed in winning the Stephen Foster Handicap last June.
I like Eagle, who ran well in his last two starts despite brutal luck. In the New Orleans Handicap, Eagle was banged around between horses on the first turn, putting him farther off the pace than he had to be, lacked room behind horses on the far turn and in upper stretch, but finished strongly once angled out for daylight to narrowly miss second. Two starts back in the Mineshaft Handicap, Eagle raced three wide against a powerful inside bias and yet was beaten only a head.
Arkansas Derby
I’m on record saying that Cupid’s victory in the Rebel was the best winning performance in a Kentucky Derby prep this season. He rushed up and set a fast pace after getting left and still won going away. I am a big fan. But Unbridled Outlaw represents an angle here I can’t resist.
Unbridled Outlaw, who last year was considered by his connections to be the equal of Blue Grass winner Brody’s Cause, was easily second-best against 10 older opponents in his recent season debut, earning a career-best Beyer. He now slides back in with straight 3-year-olds, which is a positive move, especially at this time of year.