Weekend Warrior for Saturday, April 1: Picks for Florida Derby, New Orleans, Pan American

We have two big-event days Saturday at Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds, with $1 million Kentucky Derby preps anchoring both stakes-packed cards. The Grade 1 Florida Derby is the feature at Gulfstream, where eight other stakes, five of them graded, also will be run. The Grade 2 Louisiana Derby is the headliner at Fair Grounds, where seven other stakes will be decided, three of them graded.

Florida Derby

Let’s get this right out of the way. I like Gunnevera, the romping winner of the Fountain of Youth last time out, to win right back. While it’s true that the deep-closing Gunnevera got a great setup in the Fountain of Youth, with an early pace that was fast in comparison to the other routes that day and eventually collapsed, he’s in line for another nice setup Saturday, with pace players who are suspect going long.

And while Gunnevera must break from the extreme outside, usually an extreme disadvantage going two turns at Gulfstream, it shouldn’t compromise him. Gunnevera is a drop-right-out-of-it closer, and he’ll be able to get over and save some ground on the first turn, even with the short run to that turn.

The one thing I don’t like about Gunnevera is something out of his control – he will be a short-priced favorite. But I still think there’s a wagering opportunity here because I don’t like some other horses who are likely to take money, and I do like Impressive Edge to complete a cold exacta.

Impressive Edge was a runaway winner of two of his last three starts. I especially liked his maiden win three starts back over Patch, who came back to win his next start with a 25-point Beyer Speed Figure improvement and is a legitimate contender in the Louisiana Derby. Impressive Edge will be stretching out to two turns for the first time, but he’s bred to love a route, and my hope is that he’s ridden patiently early and then picks up some of the pieces late from the distance-challenged pace players.

Three Rules, a tired third in the Fountain of Youth after setting the pace, is talented, but I think he’s much better sprinting. State of Honor comes off a second in the Tampa Bay Derby, where he set the early pace, but he has given ground late in all five of his starts around two turns.

Always Dreaming is also a play-against for me because I just don’t think he’s that fast. He’s better than the 71 Beyer he got in winning last time because that number was impacted by a slow pace. But he’s not as fast as the 88 he got last summer, a figure that has not stood up in the subsequent performances of the horse who edged him that day.

New Orleans Handicap

Noble Bird is entirely capable of taking this field wire to wire. This is certainly an easier spot than he was in most recently in the Pegasus World Cup, in which he finished a tired sixth behind the brilliant Arrogate after showing the way early. But Noble Bird is finicky and sometimes doesn’t break, and you can never be really sure if the good Noble Bird will show up.

I’m going with Breaking Lucky, who was caught five wide on the first turn in the Pegasus before winding up a distant eighth. But two starts back, Breaking Lucky finished a game second in the Clark Handicap to Gun Runner, a fine second to the amazing Arrogate in last week’s Dubai World Cup. A duplicate of Breaking Lucky’s Clark effort could win this race, as could a repeat of his close fourth in the Woodward four starts back.

Pan American Stakes

I might be guilty of sticking with Mr Maybe longer than is good for me, but I’m taking my old friend again.

I liked Mr Maybe in losing efforts in his last two starts – a 10th in the W.L. McKnight Handicap and a fifth most recently in the Mac Diarmida. But Mr Maybe was buried in traffic on the rail in the stretch of the McKnight and never had a fair chance, and he was left with way too much to do in the stretch of the Mac Diarmida, though he still finished well.

Mr Maybe, who has back races that are plenty good enough to win this, gets a rider switch to the aggressive Paco Lopez, and I’m hoping he’s put in a better striking position this time.