Weekend Warrior: Picks for Queen's Plate, Kelly's Landing Stakes, Smile Sprint for June 29, 2019

NEW YORK – The Summit of Speed at Gulfstream, a stakes doubleheader at Belmont, three stakes on the closing day program at Churchill Downs, and the Queen’s Plate card at Woodbine top an eclectic day of stakes racing on Saturday.

The main events on the Summit of Speed card are the Grade 2, $250,000 Princess Rooney and the Grade 3, $250,000 Smile Sprint. The headliner at Belmont is also a Grade 2, $250,000 race – the Mother Goose – while the ostensible feature at Churchill is the Grade 3, $125,000 Bashford Manor. The $1 million Queen’s Plate is not a graded event as it is restricted to Canadian-bred 3-year-olds, but Woodbine does have three graded races on the undercard.

Queen’s Plate

Avie’s Flatter and One Bad Boy understandably are the first two favorites on the morning line. Avie’s Flatter won three of four starts last year, all at Woodbine, two of them stakes, one of which was a route score over the same synthetic main track he competes on Saturday. Avie’s Flatter also won the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland two starts back in his 2019 bow, and now moves into restricted company.

One Bad Boy has finished third or better in all four of his starts, all against open company in California. After recording a blowout maiden win on the turf at Santa Anita two starts back despite contesting a fast early pace, he finished a game second in the Alcatraz most recently on Golden Gate’s synthetic main track.

Avie’s Flatter and One Bad Boy are clearly capable of winning this Queen’s Plate, but they aren’t so imposing that you couldn’t look elsewhere. After all, Avie’s Flatter seems destined for substantial ground loss after drawing post 14, and One Bad Boy isn’t a lock to love the 10-furlong distance.

Skywire is the one I want. Skywire was very good two starts back winning the Wando Stakes over the track (he also won his debut over the track late last year), drubbing second- and third-place finishers who came back to win their next starts. And even though he was beaten, Skywire was also good last time out in the Marine Stakes, finishing a gaining second despite being the one most compromised by a very slow pace. He will get a much more favorable pace set up this time.

Kelly’s Landing Stakes

This is one of the undercard stakes at Churchill and finds Warrior’s Club taking a major class drop after being overmatched most recently in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes won by Mitole, who came back to win the Grade 1 Met Mile. Warrior’s Club was a Weekend Warrior play at 10-1 two starts back in the Commonwealth Stakes and I must admit, I was counting the money when he moved to challenge for the lead in upper stretch. But through a frustrating stretch run, Warrior’s Club just could not seal the deal.

That stinging comeuppance aside, Warrior’s Club figures to be a handful Saturday, as does Petrov, whose near miss last time in the Aristides Stakes was his best performance in 10 months. For me, however, this race is all about Uncontested.

Uncontested also made his last two starts in the Churchill Downs and Commonwealth, and finished behind Warrior’s Club each time. However, Uncontested was unable to control the pace in either spot. He is far more effective when he can control the pace, as he demonstrated winning the General George Stakes three starts back despite a poor start, and he can control the pace here.

Uncontested’s jockey must send from the rail, which is a good thing in this case. And the two bullet works he’s posted since moving into the barn of Tom Amoss, who has gaudy numbers with newcomers, also suggests a return to a speed approach. My hope is Uncontested goes right to the front. If he does, he can wire this group.

Smile Sprint Stakes

Proforma is a graded stakes winner who has been competitive with other solid stakes sprinters. Jalen Journey won a maiden claimer three starts back and two low-level optional claimers since. Yet, I like Jalen Journey, and not only because his profile is strikingly reminiscent of Maximum Security going into the Florida Derby.

Jalen Journey, who has been tons the best winning his last three with strong Beyer Figures in his last two, figures to be the controlling speed. That, coupled with his current form and the fact that he still has lots of room for improvement, makes him an appealing class jumper.