Weekend Warrior: Picks for the Golden Rod, Demoiselle, Cigar Mile

Everywhere you look on Saturday there seems to be a stakes race – from Florida to Kentucky to New York to California and places in between. But the Warrior has his gaze fixed mostly on Churchill Downs and Aqueduct, where several promising bets loom in graded stakes.

So, let’s get to the handicapping and the plays.

Golden Rod at Churchill Downs (race 9)

A Grade 2, 1 1/16-mile dirt race for 2-year-old fillies that is part of a 12-race all-juvenile card, the Golden Rod drew a field of 12, with the most accomplished horse being Cristina’s Journey.

A winner of her first two starts, including the Grade 2 Pocahontas at Churchill in September, she is being dropped in class after finishing 11th after an awkward start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita on Nov. 1.

As good as she is, the choice is West Coast Belle. A daughter of Tapit, she won first out sprinting just 5 1/2 furlongs at Monmouth and then showed vast improvement when stretched out to a one-turn mile in the Rags to Riches overnight stakes at Churchill Downs on Oct. 26, blowing past the rest of the field with an eye-catching turn move to win by 6 3/4 lengths.

The pace makeup of the race should benefit her. With Cristina’s Journey having run poorly in the Breeders’ Cup from off the pace, one would have to think that she will be hustled out of the gate in the Golden Rod. The problem is that there are two quick fillies to her immediate inside. So, to clear those runners, she likely will have to set a faster pace than she did when she won the Pocahontas, where she was able to set slow fractions of a half-mile in 48.63 seconds and three-quarters in 1:13.91.

And without the luxury of a soft pace, she seems unlikely to run back to the 77 Beyer Speed Figure she posted in winning the Pocahontas, setting the stage for a victory from West Coast Belle, a 4-1 shot on the morning line.

Demoiselle at Aqueduct (race 8)

I’m also anticipating a quick pace in the Demoiselle, where speedball Condo Commando is entered. She is similar to Cristina’s Journey in that she won her first two races on the lead and then didn’t make the front in her first defeat, running fourth in the Grade 1 Frizette.

Though I anticipate Condo Commando will be able to clear her foes, she likely will have to go fast to do it. And maintaining a quick pace for a race at 1 1/8 miles, the distance of the Demoiselle, is no easy task.

So, I’m looking for an off-the-pace type and going with a value play in Quezon, who is perfect in two starts and a stakes winner, albeit in New York-bred company. She relaxes kindly but does not come from so far back that she will have too much left to do in the stretch.

Whether she has the class to beat open graded stakes company is the great unknown, but recently we’ve seen many top New York-breds become graded stakes winners.

Quezon doesn’t have the high-profile connections of some other entrants, like Angela Renee and Jacaranda, and should stick to her 5-1 morning line.

Cigar Mile at Aqueduct (race 10)

A two-time winner of the Vosburgh, Private Zone is a horse who regularly outruns his odds – a trend I hope continues in the Cigar Mile.

He’s 3-1 on the line, though he could go up a tick to 7-2 or so if there aren’t any scratches. In addition to 2-1 favorite Secret Circle, horses such as Itsmyluckyday, Vyjack, and Bourbon Courage look to be well backed in the nine-horse field.

From the rail, the strategy looks simple for Private Zone: Go to the front and stay there. And for a horse who likes to run that kind of race regardless of post position, the inside is no hindrance.

He led for much of last year’s Cigar Mile before finishing second in what seemed like a better field.