Weekend Warrior: Picks for the Fourstardave, La Jolla, and Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile

For the first time since late June, shortly before the close of the Churchill Downs spring meet, there is another graded stakes race in my home state of Kentucky – the Grade 3 Gardenia Stakes at Ellis Park on Saturday.

By try as this Bluegrass-based Weekend Warrior might, he just can’t get excited about betting that race – viewing favored Molly Morgan as a standout, and quite likely to dip far below her 3-1 morning line.

So the Warrior has his gaze focused elsewhere, ranging from Saratoga to Del Mar ... and to even Prairie Meadows.

Here are some plays on the docket.

Fourstardave Handicap

I must admit, I underestimated Silver Max when he returned in the Firecracker at Churchill Downs in his seasonal bow, viewing him as vulnerable off the bench in a field that seemed loaded with speed.

The pace and time off in the end mattered little. He spurted to the lead and after setting hot fractions, kept all his rivals at bay.

But he was bet down to 6-5 that day, and coming on the heels of that victory, another short price looms in the Saturday’s Fourstardave at Saratoga. He is 9-5 on the morning line and might drop a tick or two from that.

My alternative value play is the 3-1 third choice, Seek Again, who has raced in three straight Grade 1 races since being imported to the United States. He won his first start in the U.S., the Hollywood Derby for 3-year-olds late last year, and then was second to Wise Dan in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and third in the Manhattan behind Real Solution and Kaigun.

Though he has raced in longer races since arriving in the U.S., the feeling is this horse will have no trouble with the cutback to a mile on grass, the conditions of the Fourstardave. He did the bulk of his running in Europe from seven furlongs to a mile.

By choosing this spot and not an alternative race like the Arlington Million, trainer Bill Mott seems to be telling horseplayers he thinks this horse is a better miler. Trainers can be wrong, of course, but this one is in the Hall of Fame.

Look for Seek Again to get a good stalking trip behind the speed, and edge past Silver Max in the lane – that is, if the only other speed in the race, Sayaad, keeps Silver Max reasonably honest early.

La Jolla Handicap

When Schoolofhardrocks ventured to Arlington for the Grade 3 American Derby last month, I fully expected him to win and had him penciled in as a play based on his morning line.

Then the money poured in, and after being bet down to 6-5, thankfully I chose to pass the race. He finished a flat fourth.

Schoolofhardrocks is entered in the La Jolla at Del Mar, and this might prove the time to play him. On the heels of his lackluster recent performance, he seems assured of being a better price.

Perhaps he simply didn’t fare well with the travel to Arlington. Or maybe he missed the jockey that rode him to a previous victory, Martin Garcia.

Garcia is back aboard Saturday and with Enterprising likely to go off favored in the La Jolla, this handicapper is willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and back him at 2-1 or higher. That may not seem a great price, but with the race drawing only six horses, value is in short supply.

Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile

Last up is the Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile, an intriguing race in that it is the first two-turn route stakes race of 2014 for 2-year-olds.

Not surprisingly the bulk of the field is accustomed to sprinting, and races like this tend to unfold with a fast pace that fatigues many of the frontrunners.

Look for an off-the-pace horse to win this – specifically Man of Stature, a 4-1 shot on the morning line. Second in his debut when sprinting, Man of Stature stretched out to 7 1/2 furlongs on turf at Lone Star last out and won over 11 opponents in fast time despite a wide trip.

That race gave him valuable two-turn experience, and though some might regard the turf as the reason for his improvement, the belief here is that it was related to the added distance. And he gets a little bit more Saturday night at Prairie Meadows.