Weekend Warrior: Picks for the Firecracker, Iowa Oaks, and Royal Heroine

There are some very important stakes on both coasts Saturday, although not all of the big races will necessarily be good betting races. Game On Dude will be odds-on in the Grade 1, $500,000 Gold Cup at Santa Anita, a race he won the last two years when it was called the Hollywood Gold Cup. The Gold Cup is supported by three other graded stakes on the last Saturday of the Santa Anita spring meet: the Grade 1, $300,000 Triple Bend, the Grade 2, $200,000 Royal Heroine, and the Grade 3, $100,000 Senorita.

The brilliant Untapable, by far the best 3-year-old filly in the country, will be a prohibitive favorite in the Grade 1, $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park. The Mother Goose is supported by the Grade 2, $200,000 New York Stakes.

Firecracker Stakes

These days, it’s hard to bank on strong paces in turf races because so many jockeys like to take back on the grass, even when they’re on speed horses. But it’s hard to look at the past performances of this race and not think the pace will be strong, and possibly destructive. Silver Max, unquestionably the best horse here, is a want-the-lead type and probably will want to go even more coming off an eight-month layoff. But Free World is quick early, too, and has yet to show he can be anywhere near as effective conceding the front end as he is when he goes right to the top. And Regally Ready isn’t exactly a slowpoke early, either.

As formidable as Silver Max is when he’s on his game – don’t forget, he beat two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan on the square in the off-the-turf Shadwell Mile last fall – I can’t take him as long as he’s been away and with this kind of pace scenario. I want a closer.

Nikki’s Sandcastle and Villandry are closers. But I question how good Villandry really is, and while Nikki’s Sandcastle has certainly enjoyed considerable success on grass, I just wonder if, at this stage of his career, he might not be more effective on synthetic surfaces. I’m going with the other true closer, Guys Reward.

Guys Reward rallied mildly when fourth in the Monmouth Stakes most recently and was a deceptively good sixth in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic two starts back, a race in which he was allowed to lag much too far off the slow early pace. The thing is, the Monmouth Stakes and the Woodford Reserve are both nine-furlong races, and I think at this point, Guys Reward’s closing kick has more punch at slightly shorter distances. He produced a good late kick when he won the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Stakes four starts back, and the turn back to a mile Saturday helps him. It also helps that Guys Reward has run well on Churchill’s turf course. His win in the 2012 Firecracker is one of his five career wins on the course.

Iowa Oaks

The big question here is, what’s left of Ria Antonia after going from barn to barn and getting her head bashed in last time out in the Preakness? I’m not willing to pay to find out. I like Thank You Marylou.

Thank You Marylou was something of a wise-guy pick last time in the Kentucky Oaks, for interesting reasons. She showed she could run comparatively fast when she won the Any Limit Stakes in her first start this year. And after finishing third in the Grade 1 Ashland behind Room Service, who came back to romp in the Grade 1 American Oaks, and Rosalind, who started at Royal Ascot last week, Thank You Marylou was finally getting to do in the Kentucky Oaks what she was cut out to do: go long on dirt. Thank You Marylou was no match for Untapable in the Oaks, finishing fifth, but this is obviously a more realistic spot.

Royal Heroine Stakes

Parranda is a nice mare in career form, but she capitalized on extremely favorable pace setups when she won the Wilshire two starts back and the Suwannee River four back. This seems like a good race for a new face, and I’m trying Kathleen Rose.

Kathleen Rose is taking a major leap in class Saturday, but she has won three straight, all at the distance over the course, and has improved her Beyer Speed Figures from start to start. She should shake loose early again on this group and could be good enough now to wire them.