Weekend Warrior for Oct. 5: Picks for Jamaica, First Lady, Santa Anita Sprint Championship

[bc_video_id:306291:]This is the second of two hugely important weekends of final prep races for the Breeders’ Cup, and on Saturday, Keeneland leads the way. Three of the five stakes on Keeneland’s card are Grade 1 events: the $750,000 Shadwell Turf mile, featuring Horse of the Year Wise Dan; the $400,000 First Lady; and the $400,000 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity. Supporting these events are the Grade 2, $200,000 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes, which lured champion Groupie Doll, and the Grade 3, $150,000 Woodford Stakes.

Belmont Park also has a Grade 1 tripleheader consisting of the Champagne, the Frizette, and the Jamaica Handicap. Those races are worth $500,000 each. Meanwhile, at Santa Anita, the feature is the Grade 1, $250,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, supported by the Grade 2, $150,000 City of Hope Mile.

Jamaica Handicap

As they did in last week’s Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Ken and Sarah Ramsey entered a rabbit here to assist their logical and dangerous closer. This time, the closer is Admiral Kitten, who finished second in four straight before breaking through with a clear-cut win last time out in the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes. The rabbit is Get in Line, who could make life miserable early for the other speeds.

But as we saw in the Hirsch, when Little Mike came from off the pace to edge the late-running Ramsey duo of Big Blue Kitten and Real Solution, a rabbit does not only assist his stablemates, he also helps the other closers. And I like Up With the Birds to be the one here to benefit from the Ramsey rabbit.

Up With the Birds brings excellent Woodbine form into this, and we saw how well Canadian 3-year-old turf form stacks up against ours when Five Iron came down to win the Saranac at Saratoga. Yes, Five Iron wired the Saranac at a time when speed was winning everything on the turf at Saratoga, but he also ran very well, setting a fast pace, and winning off in good final time.

In any case, Up With the Birds was much the best winning the Breeders’ Stakes last time out in his return to turf after previously romping in the Marine Stakes (soundly beating Five Iron), and narrowly missing in the Queen’s Plate, finishing a city block ahead of the third finisher. Up With the Birds also has good U.S. turf form. Four starts back, he ran every bit as well as Jack Milton, who is in this race, too, when second to that opponent in the Transylvania. It should be noted that Jack Milton has also upheld the Transylvania form, as he probably would have won the Virginia Derby two back were it not for traffic trouble in the stretch, and was third in the Secretariat despite a tough-trip that saw him get squeezed back early, and then race three to four wide.

Two-year-olds at Belmont

As for the Champagne, the matchup between Strong Mandate and Honor Code is an exciting one. Horses coming out of Strong Mandate’s muddy track Hopeful romp have run well, and so have subsequent starters from Honor Code’s impressive sloppy track debut. I prefer Strong Mandate because he has more speed, and did win on a fast track two starts back. In the Frizette, we will find out if Sweet Reason is a freak on something other than slop. I suspect she is.

First Lady Stakes

Early this year, our female turf milers looked like a strong group, but they haven’t quite delivered on that promise. Of those in this event, Hungry Island and Better Lucky have run okay, but only okay. They were outfinished by the longest shot on the board in the Noble Damsel most recently. And Daisy Devine and Dayatthespa seem to be on the wrong side of their best form. The two European shippers here, Say and Amazonas, are extremely dangerous, and I’m going with Say.

Although she was deemed good enough to start in the Epsom Oaks last May, Say really has improved with experience. She began to put it together when second in a Group 2 at The Curragh last July to Dank, who came back in her next start to crush her field in the Grade 1 Beverly D., earning a 108 Beyer Figure. Say’s decisive Group 3 win two starts back, and her close third of 12 in a Group 1 last time out, suggest that, other than Amazonas, who has a right to improve in her second start off a long layoff, she might just be much better than these.

In the other Keeneland stakes, I don’t know how ready Havelock will be, but the Woodford pace does set up for him. I wasn’t wowed by Groupie Doll’s race at Presque Isle, but she should handle this TCA field. General Jack interests me in the Breeders’ Futurity. And while I can’t go against Wise Dan in the Shadwell Turf Mile, I do think Summer Front will run a big one.

Santa Anita Sprint Championship

This drew a field of eight, and not one is a hopeless outsider. But I remain skeptical of male sprint champion Trinniberg. Although I reluctantly cast my Eclipse Award vote for him last year, for me, the fact remains he capitalized on a speed bias when he won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, and he had largely uncontested leads in his previous stakes wins. I’m also against Declassify. While he was bet and won his first two starts like the second coming of Hindoo, Declassify has not yet faced the kind of quality pace pressure he will see this time.

I’m looking for a big rebound from Roman Threat. I can forgive Roman Threat’s fifth as the favorite in the Pirate’s Bounty last time because he was returning from a 15-month absence, he was making his first start on Polytrack, and he was up against Private Zone, winner of last week’s Grade 1 Vosburgh. Roman Threat is now back to dirt, he has three excellent works over the track since his comeback, and he is certainly good enough on his day. Roman Threat proved that when he was a sharp second in the 2012 Potrero Grande in just his second career start to Amazombie, who was still in his championship form at that time.