Weekend Warrior for Oct. 4: Picks for First Lady, Frizette, City of Hope
This is the last weekend of major Breeders’ Cup preps, and Keeneland is at the forefront Saturday with a trio of Grade 1 races as well as two other graded stakes. Keeneland’s Grade 1 races are the $1 million Shadwell Turf Mile, which lured two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan, the $500,000 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, and the $400,000 First Lady.
Belmont Park, where rain is predicted, has the Champagne and Frizette, both Grade 1, $500,000 races, atop a card that includes two other stakes. And weather could be an issue at Santa Anita, where temperatures might soar to 107 degrees. The Grade 1, $300,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship heads a program that includes two other graded stakes.
First Lady Stakes
Filimbi came up empty at 3-5 last time out when last of six in the Ballston Spa Stakes. But Filimbi ran too well in winning the De La Rose Stakes two starts back to take her disappointing Ballston Spa performance as gospel. I also have faith that trainer Bill Mott wouldn’t be bringing this filly back in a spot like this if he didn’t think she would deliver a top effort. I like Filimbi to make amends.
Filimbi was caught three wide all the way around the track in the Ballston Spa, but that’s not enough of an explanation for her no-show. Neither is the fact that she caught going labeled “good,” because she successfully handled deep going earlier in her career in France. My suspicion is that Filimbi reacted negatively to her huge De La Rose effort just three weeks earlier and was compromised by a lack of pace.
No question, Filimbi’s De La Rose score was big, as she inhaled a graded stakes-caliber field with eye-catching stretch acceleration. And pace is not an issue for Filimbi this time. There is plenty of speed in this First Lady, which will enable Filimbi to drop back and make one big run, which is probably her best style.
I like Carpe Diem in the Breeders’ Futurity. It was a good sign that Carpe Diem won at first asking at Saratoga going only 5 1/2 furlongs because he’s bred to be far more effective in two-turn races like this.
As for Wise Dan in the Shadwell, he is, of course, everyone’s sentimental pick. But Seek Again, who just missed against Wise Dan in his first start this year and was many lengths the best in the Fourstardave most recently, is the now horse. Seek Again and Filimbi could be part of a huge Keeneland weekend for owner/breeder Juddmonte Farm, Mott, and jockey Joel Rosario. These connections also have the heavy favorite in Sunday’s Spinster, Close Hatches.
Frizette Stakes
Condo Commando is very talented. But it’s my duty to play against her here because her big win in the Spinaway was aided by a powerful inside speed bias.
Cavorting is the play, and if she’s around her 5-2 morning-line price, she would also be value. Cavorting was clearly best in the truly run Adirondack Stakes in her most recent start, showing the ability to rate and scoring decisively over Angela Renee. Angela Renee was compromised by the bias in the Spinaway but was a clear-cut winner of the Chandelier last Saturday.
I actually like Wonder Gal to complete the exacta. Wonder Gal ran better than Angela Renee when third in the Adirondack because she had traffic trouble on the rail in the stretch, and she gets a positive rider switch.
El Kabeir is my horse in the Champagne. El Kabeir’s runaway maiden win last time out with Lasix was, for me, one of the three best 2-year-old male performances of the Saratoga meet.
City of Hope Mile
Despite a tough outside post, I’m going with Rock Me Baby. Rock Me Baby’s form this year is clouded by three starts on dirt, his third-best surface. But Rock Me Baby’s second-place finish in the Del Mar Mile two starts back in, oddly, his only start on turf this year, makes him much the one to beat against this group. And as for his post, Rock Me Baby is a closer, so I’m hoping he drops out early and tucks in.
The Sprint Championship is a terrific race dominated by Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Secret Circle and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents. Goldencents has a huge recency edge, the deciding factor in a close call.