Weekend Warrior for Oct. 26: Picks for Fayette, Jean Lafitte, Autumn Miss

The Saturday before the Breeders’ Cup is understandably a quiet one in terms of stakes action. Keeneland has the highest ranked race of the day, the Grade 2, $200,000 Fayette, while Belmont Park has a pair of Grade 3, $200,000 handicaps, the Bold Ruler and the Turnback the Alarm.

Fayette

Finnegans Wake, Willcox Inn, Lea, and Winning Cause break from the four outside posts here, and they look like the strength of this field. Willcox Inn might be the favorite off his third behind Breeders’ Cup Mile contenders Silver Max and Wise Dan in the off-the-turf Shadwell earlier in the Keeneland meet, and his narrow win two starts back in the Washington Park Handicap on Arlington’s Polytrack. But while Willcox Inn can win this, he certainly doesn’t have to. Someone had to finish third in the Shadwell. Willcox Inn was never a threat to win, and basically finished ahead of horses who did little running. And this is a tougher field than the one he edged in the Washington Park.[bc_video_id:308246:]

I’m also against Winning Cause. He likes Keeneland’s main track and won the Lexington there last spring. But unlike many 3-year-olds who improve with maturity, Winning Cause has not progressed since the Lexington. Moreover, he was outrun last time out in the Phoenix in his first start against older horses. If anything, this is a tougher group of older opponents.

Finnegans Wake is dangerous. Finnegans Wake ran well in his last two starts, finishing fourth in the Arlington Million and a close second in the Bowling Green. He is an unknown on synthetics, but his good turf form is encouraging when it comes to this particular surface switch, and trainer Dale Romans did well going turf to synthetic with Dullahan and Silver Max. I just wish Finnegans Wake, who is 2 for 16 in his career, had more of a winning profile.

Despite also being an unknown on Polytrack, I’m going with Lea. Lea has the turf form that would suggest a successful transition to Polytrack; he hit the board facing Horse of the Year Wise Dan over the summer in the Firecracker and Fourstardave, and won the Commonwealth Turf last fall. It is helpful that Lea has trained steadily on Keeneland’s Polytrack since his sloppy-track fourth last time out in the Forego, a race in which he was compromised by a speed bias, and a seven-furlong distance that is shorter than what he wants.

Jean Lafitte Stakes

This is the local stepping-stone to the Delta Downs Jackpot, and it’s an interesting race because Burning Warrior, who galloped in his first two starts and has a field-best Beyer Figure of 91, is vulnerable. Burning Warrior got his big Beyer most recently in the Louisiana Cup Juvenile, but that number can be questioned considering the runner-up in that race, Sweet Top Cat, fell off 23 Beyer points finishing second in his next start.

Rivers Run Deep might have less imposing paper than his uncoupled stablemate Guns Loaded, who is dropping out of starts in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and Grade 2 Best Pal, but I still like him. Rivers Run Deep was a surprise when he won his debut at Del Mar, but he beat three horses who came back to win their next starts. And while Rivers Run Deep was only second best in the Kip Deville at Remington last time out, he finished behind a horse in Aarons Orient who is a real runner, and was competitive with good company at Saratoga.

Autumn Miss Stakes

Wishing Gate is absolutely the one to beat here. Her win in the San Clemente two starts back and her second most recently to the talented Discreet Marq in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks are simply better than anything anyone else in here has ever done. Still, Wishing Gate will need a bit of luck Saturday to avoid a tough trip as she breaks from the outside with a relatively short run to the first turn.

Oscar Party is a playable alternative. Oscar Party was a game second in the slop in the Indiana Oaks last time out and now moves back to more familiar turf. She was a good third three back in the Regret to Grade 1 winner Kitten’s Dumplings after being too close to a strong early pace.