Weekend Warrior for Oct. 19: Picks for Raven Run, Mohawk, Labeeb
Saturday is statebred day, with the Empire Showcase Day card at Belmont Park, the West Virginia Breeders Classics program at Charles Town, the Maryland Million card at Laurel, and a handful of statebred stakes at Indiana Downs. There is a graded race on the schedule, the Grade 2, $250,000 Raven Run at Keeneland.
Raven Run Stakes
I tend to gravitate toward horses cutting back from middle distances in extended sprints such as this seven-furlong event. Stamina is frequently a deciding factor late in these kind of races. But like anything else in handicapping, you can’t be dogmatic about it. A capable horse loose on an uncontested lead will always trump one turning back in distance, unless, of course, you have a track where speed just won’t carry.
[bc_video_id:307707:]On paper, there is no defined pacesetter in this race, just a handful of fillies who figure to be forward early factors. This scenario plays in favor of horses turning back in distance, and I like two fillies cutting back off a pair of turf stakes routes who have good back synthetic track form, My Option and Silsita.
I’m going with My Option, who will be the better price of the two. My Option finished third in the Pucker Up and Hatoof stakes in her last two starts behind I’m Already Sexy, who enjoyed perfect trips in both of those outings, but who also came back to be beaten only three lengths after pressing a fast pace in last week’s Grade 1 QE II Cup.
Prior to those starts, My Option turned in two sharp performances on Arlington’s Polytrack. She was particularly good winning the Arlington Oaks, closing despite encountering what appeared to be a slow pace, and beating fillies in Sky Girl and Seaneen Girl who came back to win the Dogwood Stakes and Monmouth Park Oaks, respectively, in their next starts.
Silsita was overmatched in the Lake Placid last time out, but was determined winning the My Princess Jess Stakes two starts back. That effort was reminiscent of Silsita’s victory in the Bourbonette Oaks last March on Turfway’s Polytrack, her only synthetic start to date.
Mohawk Stakes
This is one of the stakes on the Empire Showcase card, and unlike last month’s Ashley T. Cole, the local stepping-stone to this race, there should be a legitimate early pace this time.
Kharafa prevailed in the Cole after getting loose on an easy, uncontested lead. But on Saturday, Kharafa figures to have company up front in Mission Approved, who is making his first start since the 2011 Japan Cup 23 months ago; King Kreesa, who suggested he might be the year’s best New York-bred turf male when he won the Grade 3 Poker and finished second to Wise Dan in the Fourstardave; and Abilio, who will probably send from his outside post.
As for King Kreesa, he is taking a massive class drop. But I wonder what being virtually eased last time out in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic did to his form.
Lubash is my play. Lubash was a narrowly beaten second to Kharafa in the Cole despite being compromised by the slow pace and racing three wide around the turns. But not only does Lubash get a much better setup here, his Cole effort suggested a return to the form that enabled him to win the Grade 3 Fort Marcy earlier this year. It also doesn’t hurt that Lubash is backed by a barn on a roll. His trainer, Christophe Clement, won two turf stakes at Belmont last weekend with Za Approval and Discreet Marq.
Labeeb Stakes
Hunters Bay will be making his first start since finishing second to Wise Dan in the 2012 Woodbine Mile 13 months ago. But even though Hunters Bay runs well fresh and isn’t meeting any killers, I can’t take a horse off that kind of layoff at what will likely be low odds.
I’m taking a shot with Hotep at a price. Hotep’s recent form is uninspiring, but he is cutting back to a mile Saturday, and I suspect that is now his preferred distance. His best performance this year was a narrowly beaten third in the one-mile King Edward last June, and if Hunters Bay indeed needs one, a duplicate of that effort might be good enough.