Weekend Warrior for Oct. 18: Picks for Maryland Million Turf, Raven Run, Hudson
The Grade 2, $250,000 Raven Run Stakes is the only graded stakes event on a Saturday that primarily features statebred competition. It’s Empire Showcase Day at Belmont, Maryland Million Day at Laurel, and West Virginia Breeders’ Classics Night at Charles Town.
Maryland Million Turf
Ben’s Cat should require no introduction. This 8-year-old gelding has won 27 of 43 career starts, 22 of them stakes, and has earned almost $2.2 million the hard way, only once running in a race as highly ranked as a Grade 2 event. Ben’s Cat is a folk hero.
That’s why it was interesting to read trainer King Leatherbury’s comments to the Laurel press department. Leatherbury said he was “disappointed” in Ben’s Cat’s third in the Laurel Dash last time out, and that his performance in that race “worries me a little bit.” Leatherbury also noted that after originally intending to run Ben’s Cat on dirt in the Maryland Million Sprint, he opted for the Turf because he considered it to be the “easier race.”
Leatherbury’s points about Ben’s Cat’s most recent performance seem spot on, as Ben’s Cat had dead aim from the far turn on and did not kick on the way he usually does. But this may not be the easier spot because of the one-mile distance.
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Although Ben’s Cat once won at a mile, and even once won at nine furlongs, both of those victories were four years ago. He has since made only four starts going as far as a mile and lost all of them, including a second in this race last year as the even-money favorite. Simply put, Ben’s Cat is a turf sprinter. The combination of a less-than-ideal distance and questionable recent form means he’s vulnerable.
Roadhog, who beat Ben’s Cat in this race last year, will be tough, as an improved second most recently suggests he’s rounding back into form. But I prefer Talk Show Man, even with his tough outside post.
Talk Show Man, vastly improved since switching to turf this year, probably needed his recent return from a freshening in a very tough allowance race and should improve. He ran big in finishing second in his prior two starts, first losing a narrow decision to Manchurian High, the winner of last month’s Laurel Turf Cup. Talk Show Man was then the runner-up in the Cape Henlopen to Hardest Core, the winner of the Arlington Million in his next start, while finishing ahead of Holiday Star, who was beaten by noses in stakes in his next two outings.
Raven Run
Miss Behaviour earned my respect with her blowout win in the Charles Town Oaks last time out to follow three straight graded-stakes seconds here in New York. I have no issues with her. I just can’t resist Divided Attention.
Divided Attention showed a bit of quality last year, mainly in a respectable fourth in the Frizette. But she indicated that she has markedly improved with time in an impressive win at Saratoga with Lasix added in her only start this year. Divided Attention did not stumble at the start, as the comment line says – she merely broke outward a bit – but she looked like a winner every step and drew off powerfully late to earn a Beyer Speed Figure that puts her right in the mix here. Divided Attention has been given time to recover from that effort, and yet she still has lots of room to take another significant step forward.
Hudson Handicap
The pace in this supporting stakes at Belmont has the potential to be hot and could compromise those involved in it. I want someone who can come from off the pace, and that horse is the improved Noble Cornerstone.
Noble Cornerstone has won three of his last four, and his going-away score most recently suggests he has outgrown his tendency to pull himself up once he hits the front. He also has enough tactical foot to get good position just off any pace battle, which will enable him to get first run on those who figure to be deeper closers such as Big Business and West Hills Giant.