Weekend Warrior for Oct. 12: Picks for QE II Challenge Cup, Knickerbocker, In Reality

[bc_video_id:306969:]Things are much quieter on the stakes front Saturday than they were the last few weeks. Keeneland has the big race of the day with the Grade 1, $400,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, and Belmont Park has a Grade 3, $200,000 stakes doubleheader with the Athenia and Knickerbocker. Those two races, like the QE II, are scheduled for the turf, and weather threatens to be a factor.

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup

I picked Say in this space against older opponents in last week’s First Lady Stakes at Keeneland, and though she didn’t move a muscle finishing sixth in that race, I’m giving her another chance. I’m inclined to draw a line through the First Lady because it was run in a driving rainstorm, and it’s somewhat understandable that Say was unable to get involved after getting a bit lost in the early stages.

Putting aside that dull effort, it is worth noting that Say, who adds blinkers for this start, went off a solid second choice in the wagering last week against decent older company. She moves back in with 3-year-olds, which in theory suggests this should be an easier spot. Say also resembles the profile of Together, one of only two other horses trainer Aidan O’Brien has started at Keeneland over the past five years. In 2011, Together came over from Europe, finished second in the First Lady, and won the QE II one week later.

Say’s appeal traces back to her second in a Group 2 at The Curragh last July to Dank, who came back to romp in the Grade 1 Beverly D. in her next start. Say confirmed that improved effort with four subsequent solid performances, including a close third in a Group 1 at Leopardstown prior to the First Lady.

Even if she is moving back in with members of her own age, Say will have to be on her game as Alterite and Kitten’s Dumplings are dangerous. Alterite, who also had Group 1-level form in Europe, was clearly the best when winning the Grade 1 Garden City in her U. S. debut. Kitten’s Dumplings won three straight stakes before being a pace-compromised fourth in the Del Mar Oaks. The pace should be much more lively Saturday, which will help not only Kitten’s Dumplings, but Alterite and Say, as well.

Knickerbocker Stakes

If this race stays on turf, it seems likely it be run on off going. That would help Boisterous, who is the class of this field anyway off his win in the Grade 1 Man o’ War three starts back. Boisterous is at his best when he catches some give in the ground. But I didn’t care for Boisterous’s third-place finish at odds-on in the Bowling Green last time out. The “trouble” he encountered was overblown. And while those who say the footing was too firm for his liking might be right, I took the outing as an indication that Boisterous is tailing off.

I’m taking a shot here with the speedy Plainview. Plainview has shown dramatic improvement over the last 17 months, going 6 for 11 since being claimed. And though his fourth as the favorite in an overnight stakes most recently might look disappointing on paper, it came on a day when there was a closer’s bias on turf. Plainview looks like he will get completely loose on the lead here, and I’m hoping for a front-running upset.

In Reality Stakes

My Brown Eyed Guy will be strongly favored here to complete a sweep of the Florida Stallion Stakes series, but even though he can certainly win, he’s not a great bet. My Brown Eyed Guy had a ridiculously easy trip winning the Affirmed last time out, getting away with setting an early pace that was very slow in comparison to the other sprints that day. He doesn’t figure to be as fortunate Saturday while also going two turns for the first time.

Worldly Vision is my play. Worldly Vision was tons the best in his maiden victory around two turns at Louisiana Downs in his last start, checking on the first turn, going three wide on the far turn, and still spread-eagling his field. Worldly Vision will have to take another step forward to get the money here, but there are reasons to think he can. He was coming off a two-month layoff when he won, while also stretching out from 5 1/2 furlongs to a route.