Weekend Warrior for Oct. 11: Picks for QE II Challenge Cup, Knickerbocker, Cal Distaff
With the major Breeders’ Cup preps behind us, the stakes pickings are slim Saturday. The only two graded stakes on the schedule are the Grade 1, $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland and the Grade 3, $200,000 Knickerbocker at Belmont. Both races are scheduled to be run on turf, but both might be run on courses affected by rain.
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup
There is a chance for heavy rain in Lexington, Ky., on Saturday. But I’m going to approach this Grade 1 event as though it will remain on turf, albeit on off going. Interestingly, all but Aurelia’s Belle in this nine-horse field have finished second or better on turf rated “good” or worse, so in this case, form might not play second fiddle to conditions.
I’m not especially taken with the five fillies in this race who have campaigned regularly in New York – Minorette, Ball Dancing, Sea Queen, Crown Queen, and Daring Dancer. They are all capable, but none is a standout in my eyes. You could get them together five times and wind up with five different results.
Personal Diary was good in winning the Del Mar Oaks last time out. However, she might not get as favorable a pace setup this time, and that career-best performance came on footing different than she is likely to encounter Saturday.
I’m going with the intriguing Speed Seeker, who has shown plenty of ability after only three starts and might have the highest ceiling of anyone here.
After romping in her debut in June at Woodbine, Speed Seeker was spotted extremely aggressively in Saratoga’s Lake George Stakes in her second start. She also was very well bet at 5-1, considering that she was up against six far more-seasoned stakes-winning or stakes-placed opponents. Speed Seeker finished fifth but was going very well at the finish after being tentatively ridden between horses through the stretch, and she galloped out ahead of the field past the wire, including Daring Dancer.
Speed Seeker took a big step forward last time out – not surprising, considering how lightly raced she is – dominating the Ontario Colleen on footing labeled “good.” Speed Seeker, who showed positional speed in her first two starts, demonstrated versatility, coming from off the pace to score by almost five lengths. In the process, she crushed Daring Kathy, who finished in front of her in the Lake George, and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 95 that is tops in this field.
Knickerbocker Stakes
Up With the Birds and the uncoupled Christophe Clement-trained pair of Speaking of Which and Za Approval are the favorites here, but they aren’t invincible. Up With the Birds is dropping in class off a fourth in the Arlington Million, and he did win the Jamaica at the distance over the course last fall, but the jury is out on how good he really is.
Speaking of Which impressed in winning the Monmouth Stakes in his last appearance, but that was four months ago. There have been a handful of races he could have run in since, and the fact that he didn’t run in any of them is cause for pause. And Za Approval, who won this race last year, would be a layover on his back form. But though his win last time out might suggest that he’s back on his game, he got away with a ridiculously easy, uncontested lead.
I like Mshawish, who hasn’t had a chance to do his best here in the United States. Mshawish made a silly, wide, middle move in the Oceanport Stakes in his U.S. debut and was completely trapped for much of the stretch run most recently at Saratoga, yet he still finished first. But earlier this year in Dubai, Mshawish walloped Trade Storm, the winner of the Woodbine Mile, and followed with a creditable fourth in the Dubai Duty Free behind three absolutely top-class opponents.
California Distaff Handicap
Qiaona is my play in this downhill feature at Santa Anita.
Qiaona stormed from off the pace to upset this race last year and is poised to do the same Saturday. Not only was her second-place finish most recently in the Solana Beach arguably her best race since her win in this event last fall, it also set up a pattern that worked for her. When Qiaona won last year’s Cal Distaff, she did so while cutting back from a middle-distance turf outing at Del Mar. She’s repeating that pattern here.