Weekend Warrior for Nov. 8: Picks for River City, Long Island, Juvenile Turf

Life beyond the Breeders’ Cup finds two Grade 3 stakes races on Saturday’s schedule – the $200,000 Long Island Handicap at Aqueduct and the $100,000 River City Handicap at Churchill Downs – as well as the stakes-packed Sunshine Millions Preview card at Gulfstream Park West.

River City Handicap

Silver Max was beaten only four lengths by two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan when fifth in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile last time out. Silver Max is taking a substantial class drop in this spot, and he is the controlling speed. I concede that Silver Max is capable of wiring this field, but I wouldn’t take him at a short price.

Silver Max’s only win this year, in the Firecracker Stakes in his seasonal debut, has a big asterisk affixed to it. Free World, a horse who had more than enough early speed to take the starch out of Silver Max early, was instead taken back right out of the gate. That gave Silver Max an uncontested early lead, one he would not relinquish. Moreover, while Silver Max is accomplished at the one-mile distance of the Firecracker on up to 1 1/16 miles, he is something of a question mark at the nine-furlong distance he must travel Saturday.

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The distance of this race might also be problematic for Silver Max’s uncoupled barnmate, Guys Reward. Guys Reward is a solid horse, but his stretch punch seems far more effective at eight to 8 1/2 furlongs.

Villandry is my play. Villandry’s recent form is clouded by circumstances, going back to his rallying fourth in the Firecracker four starts back, when he was also compromised by the uncontested pace. After that, Villandry was a better-than-it-looks fifth in the Lure Stakes at Saratoga, where he was three wide around the track and was steadied between horses in upper stretch. He also was in with tough customers that day, such as Big Blue Kitten, who was second in the recent Canadian International, and Legendary, who came back to win stakes in his next two starts.

In his last two outings, Villandry ran well, picking up minor awards in two stakes going 1 1/2 miles, a distance that is probably a bit beyond his scope. The shorter distance of this race suits him, and it should be noted that he is a past winner going 1 1/8 miles on turf at Churchill.

Long Island Handicap

Viva Rafaela, a sharp third behind subsequent Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf runner-up Stephanie’s Kitten in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl last time out, and Danza Cavallo, a European import now making her first start for trainer Chad Brown, will have their supporters here. But I’m not so sure about them. It might be tough for Viva Rafaela to lead throughout this 1 1/2-mile race on ground that will have some cut to it after rain in the area Thursday into Friday. As for Danza Cavallo, she doesn’t really match the profile of the many European imports Brown has had success with over the years because she raced in the minors in her native France and has no group stakes experience.

I’m going with Tabreed. Tabreed had excuses in her first two starts this year (off a long layoff, then no pace to rally into), and after an improved third most recently in a division of the Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon, she looks poised for a peak effort. Moreover, given her two solid performances last fall, Tabreed would be aided by off going.

Juvenile Turf

This is one of the stakes at Gulfstream Park West, and I admit that I don’t have a good projection for Firespike’s final odds. His last three starts were at Saratoga and Keeneland, and he has a winner for a trainer in Mike Maker. On the other hand, there are others in here with better Beyer Speed Figures. But I do know I like him.

Firespike will relish moving back to turf after competing in the Breeders’ Futurity last time. He would have won his debut four starts back if he wasn’t so green, and when he did get his debut win two back at Saratoga, he ran much better than it looks on paper, overcoming ridiculous stretch trouble.