Weekend Warrior for Nov. 28: Picks for Hawthorne Gold Cup, Golden Rod, Demoiselle

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – There is stakes action galore for horseplayers on Saturday, with 10 graded races, including two Grade 1s in the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct and the Hollywood Derby at Del Mar. Of all these graded stakes, it is the Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup that has this handicapper most excited to bet. I see value on a locally based runner in a race where out-of-towners figure to garner the overwhelming share of mutuel support.

So, let’s get to handicapping that race and a couple of graded stakes for 2-year-old fillies that also should offer a little bit of value.

Hawthorne Gold Cup

The three favorites on the morning line are all shippers: Commissioner at 9-5, Neck ‘n Neck at 7-2, and Majestic Harbor at 4-1.

Commissioner, last year’s Belmont Stakes runner-up, is the most likely winner. But the expectation is that he will drop from his 9-5 morning line, perhaps to 7-5 or less, and at those odds, he is difficult to accept, given his occasional habit of not firing. Four times in his last 12 starts, he has lost by margins of 10 lengths or more.

As a price alternative, I like 6-1 Valiant City, a local who has won three straight. He won twice this summer at Arlington on the Polytrack and then scored at Hawthorne in an allowance that was a prep for this race, improving his record to 3 for 6 on this dirt track.

Having run a 94 Beyer Speed Figure last out, he stacks up well against the opposition from that perspective. The only higher last-race figure in the field is the 95 that Commissioner ran when finishing fourth in the Fayette Stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 30.

And that wasn’t Valiant City’s only fast race. Two starts ago, he posted a 90 Beyer in a win at Arlington at 1 1/8 miles on Aug. 23.

Throw in tactical speed and a 9-for-21 record, and he takes on obvious appeal if he starts close to his morning-line odds.

Golden Rod Stakes

A sound wagering practice is to bet against hype, and horseplayers have that opportunity in the Grade 2 Golden Rod for 2-year-old fillies at Churchill. There are two types of horses in this race that the betting public loves: an unbeaten runner in Stageplay and a huge-figure horse in Carina Mia, who just ran a Songbird-like 97 Beyer.

Their talent is not in question, only their expected odds. Stageplay is 5-2 on the line but is likely to drop lower after winning the Rags to Riches at 3-5, and Carina Mia likely will stay close to her 2-1 morning line. If that’s the case, Dothraki Queen seems probable to start at odds a little higher than she should, perhaps drifting up from her 5-2 morning line to go off at 3-1 or so.

That’s a fair price on a filly who is the most battle tested of any in the field and the only one of the three favorites with any two-turn or 1 1/16-mile experience. The winner of the Grade 2 Pocahontas over this track in September, she returned last month to finish second in the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland, followed by a third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies behind Songbird and Rachel’s Valentina.

Considering her achievements and the company she’s kept, I’m more than happy to play her against less-experienced runners in Stageplay and Carina Mia, who have made only two starts apiece.

Demoiselle Stakes

With three of the seven entrants coming off maiden wins, I’m again going to favor experience over future promise. The play in this 1 1/8-mile race for juvenile fillies at Aqueduct is Flora Dora, who won the $500,000 My Dear Girl at Gulfstream two starts ago. She followed that two-turn, 1 1/16-mile stakes – the final race of the Florida Sire Stakes – with a second in the one-mile Tempted at Aqueduct on Nov. 4.

With neither the winner nor the third-place finisher from the Tempted returning in the Demoiselle, this race might actually be easier. And with the race at two turns – one lap around the Aqueduct oval – she appears to hold an advantage.

Normally, a horse like this might not offer any value. But because she is starting for a barn that is just 1 for 28 this year, I suspect some won’t pay Flora Dora the proper respect, particularly with high-profile trainers such as Chad Brown, Bill Mott, and Todd Pletcher having starters in the race. But match Flora Dora up against the others in the field, and by one criterion or another, she appears best.