Weekend Warrior for Nov. 23: Picks for River City, Delta Jackpot, Real Quiet

There is a little bit of everything on Saturday’s handicapping docket – from statebred contests in New York, to top juvenile races at Delta Downs and Betfair Hollywood Park, and a graded stakes on turf at Churchill Downs.

The Warrior is going to focus on the juveniles this week, along with the River City at Churchill, a 1 1/8-mile grass race that drew an overflow field.

River City Handicap

Rain, or, more accurately, the condition of the Churchill turf course after rainfall, could influence the results of the River City. Though the forecast is for clearing skies Saturday, if moderate to heavy rain falls, as expected, the Churchill turf course is likely to be yielding, provided the race remains on grass.

Such conditions would play to the strength of my selection, 5-1 shot Coalport. Twice this past summer he raced on yielding turf at Arlington Park, and both starts resulted in dominant victories, and in one such race, the Black Tie Affair, he earned a career-best 98 Beyer Speed Figure.

Granted, Coalport is not the only one with established wet-course form. Just to name a couple – the favored Keep Up, the defending champion, won a small stakes at Arlington on good turf, and former European Kalamos won on soft turf in France last year.

But none has the specific yielding-course form of Coalport.

Beyond the going, there are other reasons to like Coalport. He won in August and September on firm turf, and his most recent start was respectable, a fifth in an off-the-grass running of the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile on Keeneland’s Polytrack.

I’m hopeful some will balk at playing Coalport because of the 1 1/8-mile distance of the River City since he is winless beyond 1 1/16 miles. But having only attempted 1 1/8 miles once, in his first start of 2012 following a layoff, it doesn’t seem fair to penalize him for that race alone.

On his preferred ground and fit off a series of races this fall, he should fare much better this time going 1 1/8 miles.

Delta Jackpot

The $1 million, Grade 3 Delta Jackpot is another intriguing race, and though the competition doesn’t run as deep as in the River City, I’m still encouraged by the opportunity to back Rise Up.

A winner of 3 of 5 starts, including the Jean Lafitte by 6 1/2 lengths over the Delta strip in the prep for the Jackpot, Rise Up has the qualifications to win. But he likely won’t be the favorite.

Coastline, who has won two straight since a runner-up finish in his debut, likely will go off favored, but with him untested going two turns and shipping from Kentucky to Louisiana, backing him at short odds doesn’t excite. He has more right to regress than move forward, though he is a quality colt.

Adding to the appeal of Rise Up is the fact that he is ridden by Gerard Melancon, a successful local rider but a jockey who won’t draw the simulcast wagering dollars of nationally known riders.

Real Quiet Stakes

Last up is the Real Quiet, a 1 1/16-mile race for 2-year-olds at Hollywood Park. As is often the case in stakes for juveniles, the race is speed-laden, with five of the eight entrants accustomed to racing close to the pace, and three of those are stretch-out sprinters.

In scenarios like this, I prefer not the come-from-the-clouds closer but a horse likely to get a stalking trip.

Life Is a Joy is likely that horse. Though he won his first three races setting or contesting the pace, he showed a new dimension in finishing a close fifth in the Golden State Juvenile at Santa Anita on Nov. 1. He settled kindly that day after stumbling at the start and, after advancing from eighth to fourth, grew a little tired in the late going.

Having shown he can rate and run well, expect Life Is a Joy to sit midpack and pounce on the tired leaders.