Weekend Warrior for Nov. 22: Picks for Delta Mile, Tropical Turf, Cardinal
Delta Downs is in the spotlight Saturday with the Grade 3, $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot, and the Grade 3, $400,000 Delta Downs Princess. These races are supported by a handful of undercard stakes, including the $250,000 Delta Mile and the $200,000 Treasure Chest.
Delta Mile
There is a fair amount of speed in this race. Grand Contender figures to go to the lead from his outside post, and is likely to show enhanced early speed coming off a four-month break and sporting two recent bullet workouts. Decisive Moment’s best game is on or with the pace, and he will be a forward early factor from post 2. Breaking between these two is the stretch-out sprinter Mighty Brown, who will only add to what should be a lively pace.
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With this scenario, it would seem the last horse you would want is another who would seem to want to be part of the early mix. But I can’t resist Mystery Train here, even if the pace setup might not be ideal for him.
Mystery Train was a front-running fool winning two Group 1 races early this year in his native Argentina, and there has been no lack of confidence in him considering the way he has been spotted in his first two U.S. starts. Mystery Train made his U.S. debut in the Pacific Classic, and wound up a distant ninth. But that outing can be forgiven as Mystery Train competed on a synthetic surface he may not have liked, and he disputed a very fast early pace with Game On Dude for more than six furlongs before fading.
Mystery Train moved back to dirt most recently in the Awesome Again, and though he finished sixth of seven that day, his effort was much improved. When Sky Kingdom took Shared Belief wide on the first turn in that Breeders’ Cup Classic prep, Mystery Train fell into the unenviable position of having to do the dirty work and keep Fed Biz honest on the lead. But this time, Mystery Train remained competitive much deeper into the race.
It goes without saying that Mystery Train lands in a dramatically softer spot Saturday. He has worked well since the Awesome Again, and the cut back to a mile might suit him well.
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As for the Jackpot, I prefer morning-line favorite Mr. Z. He was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile against better, and his effort was better than it looks on paper. He was three- to four-wide throughout, finished better than anyone else intimately involved in the early pace, and was beaten less than two lengths for second money.
In the Princess, Take Charge Brandi must show me her 61-1 upset of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies was not a fluke. I will take a shot with Majestic Presence, even if she never ran a step in the Juvenile Fillies. She adds blinkers, and was a decent fourth in the Chandelier two back after a wide trip.
Tropical Turf Handicap
There was a time late in his 3-year-old season and as an early 4-year-old that Unbridled Command could have mastered this field running sideways. His Hollywood Derby score and third behind Point of Entry and Animal Kingdom at Gulfstream were fine performances. But that was a long time ago, and it’s guesswork if he really has anything left. However, if Unbridled Command does have something left, I expect him to show it Saturday.
Unbridled Command’s four outings this year in Southern California off a long absence were not inspiring. But now, he makes his first start for prolific trainer Marty Wolfson, and a bullet breeze early this month suggests big improvement might be forthcoming.
Cardinal Handicap
I’m Already Sexy, who already looks strong on paper, might also be completely loose on the lead here. But I’m going with Royal Fury.
Royal Fury was up against better in the E.P. Taylor last time, but had little chance when she was squeezed back on the far turn before she had even been asked to run. Her second in the Canadian two starts back was a solid effort, good enough to make her a major factor in this race.