Weekend Warrior for May 10: Picks for Peter Pan, Decathlon, Fury

The combination of being stuck between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and the biggest races of the weekend moved to Sunday to accommodate television, result in a light stakes schedule on Saturday. The only two graded races of the day are the Grade 2, $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park, and the Grade 3, $100,000 Lazaro Barrera Stakes at Santa Anita.

Peter Pan Stakes

Although this will be his first start in a stakes race, and first start since overcoming a lung infection that knocked him out of an intended start in the Wood Memorial, Tonalist is very much the one to beat. Tonalist showed a lot of potential at Gulfstream in his two starts this year. After recording an impressive maiden victory in his first opportunity going a middle distance, he followed with an excellent second in that hot allowance race on the Fountain of Youth undercard.

There were two things that were particularly noteworthy about Tonalist’s performance that day. For one, in an attempt to counteract a prevailing speed bias, Tonalist abandoned his more effective closing style by challenging much earlier than usual, and yet he still ran well. And then, Tonalist finished behind only Constitution, who came back to win the Florida Derby in his next start, and finished ahead of Wicked Strong, who came back to win the Wood Memorial in his next outing.

Commissioner and Our Caravan will have their share of supporters. Commissioner, albeit with the aid of a better trip, edged the highly regarded Top Billing in his first start this year, was compromised by the speed bias in the Fountain of Youth, and will find this an easier spot than his last outing in the Arkansas Derby. Our Caravan, with blinkers on, ran by far his best race yet last time out when he crushed Tampa Bay Derby winner Ring Weekend in the Calder Derby.

The striking thing about this Peter Pan, however, is the almost complete lack of early speed. In a total pace play, I’m going with Fabulous Kid, who, barring an unlucky start, will be the lone front-runner, and be as loose early as he wants to be.

Fabulous Kid also comes into this off a fine third in the Northern Spur Stakes. Fabulous Kid was making a big class jump in the Northern Spur after winning at first asking, and then went out and set a pace that was very fast for the day, faster, in fact, than the paces set in the Oaklawn Handicap and Arkansas Derby later in the card. Despite carving out those fast fractions, Fabulous Kid fought gamely, bowing late only to Bourbonize, who improved with blinkers on, and Knock Em Flat, who was coming off a big win. With this being only his third start, and with a projected easier time on the front end, Fabulous Kid has every right to take a big step forward Saturday.

Decathlon Stakes

Ribo Bobo and Candyman E are the “name” horses in this feature on the opening day card at Monmouth, but they seem vulnerable. Rating Ribo Bobo last time out did not work. But since he has moved up into tougher conditions, Ribo Bobo is also finding the company and trips are getting tougher, and he has other speed to contend with here. As for Candyman E, he won stakes two and three starts back over eventual Grade 1 Carter upsetter Dads Caps. But Candyman E hasn’t raced since an empty effort in the Tom Fool two months ago, and that’s unsettling.

Javerre is my play. Javerre signaled a return to top form with improved Beyer Figures in his last two starts, was compromised by a slow pace in his last start, and now cuts back to a six-furlong distance that is his favored trip. Moreover, Javerre returns to a Monmouth main track that is probably his favorite. He won his first four starts over the strip, and was a narrowly beaten second to the amazing Immortal Eyes in last summer’s Teddy Drone Stakes.

Fury Stakes

This Woodbine race goes through Lexie Lou, who was fourth against open company in her recent return from a four-month layoff and was out very well past the wire, and who will like the added distance. But I think Hot and Spicy is a tasty alternative.

Hot and Spicy won her debut on turf at Gulfstream, earning a Beyer that’s already better than most in this field. What’s especially interesting is, according to DRF ’s Formulator, trainer Jimmy Bond is 4 for 13 in the last five years with horses going turf to synthetic, and all four winners were at Woodbine.