Weekend Warrior for March 8: Picks for Tampa Bay Derby, Kilroe Mile, Gulfstream Handicap
Saturday is Big Cap Day at Santa Anita, where the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap, featuring a rematch between Breeders’ Cup Classic one-two finishers Mucho Macho Man and Will Take Charge, tops an outstanding card.
Saturday is also the biggest day of the year at Tampa Bay Downs, where the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby backed by two other graded stakes. One other noteworthy race is the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap, which marks the return of Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice.
Tampa Bay Derby
Conquest Titan is the one to beat off two straight solid efforts. Two starts back, he won an allowance at Churchill Downs over General a Rod, who came back to win the Gulfstream Park Derby and narrowly miss in the Fountain of Youth. And last time out, Conquest Titan finished second in Gulfstream’s Holy Bull.
In the Holy Bull, Conquest Titan rallied wide, finished behind only Cairo Prince, the future book favorite for the Kentucky Derby, and narrowly ahead of Intense Holiday, who came back to win the Risen Star.
[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]
Regarding Conquest Titan’s trip, yes, there are days at Gulfstream when inside speed rules, but Holy Bull Day was not one of them. The first three finishers in the Holy Bull all had wide trips, and there were a couple of rally-wide winners earlier on that card. As for the company he kept, the truth is, Conquest Titan was absolutely no match for Cairo Prince, losing by almost six lengths. And beyond finishing ahead of Intense Holiday, Conquest Titan also finished in front of a handful of horses who did very little running in their next starts. Conquest Titan may be the horse to beat, but he doesn’t have to win.
I like East Hall, who finished fourth in the Fountain of Youth two weeks ago at 72-1. East Hall drew the extreme outside post that day, and in an attempt to escape a wide trip, he dropped much farther off the early pace than usual. On a day when there was indeed a demonstrable speed bias, East Hall managed to pass seven horses on his way to his minor award. That was a creditable effort under the circumstances, and a continuation of the improving trend East Hall began when third in his last start on dirt in the Gulfstream Derby behind General a Rod and Wildcat Red. Those two, of course, were the first two finishers in reverse order in the Fountain of Youth.
Frank E. Kilroe Mile
Winning Prize impressed winning the Arcadia last time, and Silentio, who won the Citation in his last outing, emerged last year as a top turf miler on his circuit. But my play is Za Approval.
Za Approval improved dramatically last fall, culminating in an excellent second in the Breeders’ Cup Mile behind two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan. Not only was Za Approval game in the Mile, he was determined turning back Silentio for the place when it looked like Silentio had to get second money. Za Approval is coming into this off a four-month layoff, but the fact that he shipped across the country for a sharp barn is taken as an indication of strong stable confidence.
In the Big Cap, I like Mucho Macho Man over Will Take Charge because he will get first run on his rival, which is always an advantage at this level. Sahara Sky gets his distance in the San Carlos, and I’m giving a shaky vote to Midnight Hawk to make amends in the San Felipe.
Gulfstream Park Handicap
Palace Malice and Itsmyluckyday, runner-up in last year’s Preakness, are obviously good enough to win. But I suspect Palace Malice’s real focus is on upcoming two-turn races, and Itsmyluckyday will need a race off a nine-month injury-related absence.
I can’t resist Falling Sky. I don’t know where Falling Sky came up with the effort he did in the Gulfstream Sprint most recently, but it was a huge front-running romp on a day when there was no overt speed bias. Falling Sky is meeting tougher, and will be much less than 14-1 this time. But he is the controlling speed again, and is taken to go wire to wire.