Weekend Warrior for March 7: Picks for San Carlos, Palm Beach, Gotham

“Big” only begins to describe the racing Saturday. We have Shared Belief, the best horse in America, going in the Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Handicap. We have four significant Kentucky Derby preps – the Grade 2, $400,000 San Felipe at Santa Anita; the Grade 2, $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby; the rescheduled Grade 2, $200,000 Swale at Gulfstream; and the Grade 3, $400,000 Gotham at Aqueduct.

San Carlos Stakes

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Conquest Two Step is in raging form. He was a narrowly beaten second to none other than Shared Belief in the Malibu two starts back at 72-1 and proved that that effort was no fluke with a going-away score over a strong, if short, field in the Palos Verdes last time out. However, Conquest Two Step got pace setups in those races, especially the Palos Verdes, that played perfectly to his closing style. The pace scenario in this race doesn’t look nearly as favorable.

In fact, the different pace scenario is why I like Chitu. I don’t think anyone in this field is capable of putting serious pace pressure on Chitu, and he showed he’s certainly good enough to capitalize on a trip like that given his close third in the Malibu under less-than-favorable circumstances.

Chitu shot right to the front in the Malibu but then was oddly pushed into running a second quarter-mile in a fast 22.11 seconds by, of all opponents, his uncoupled barnmate, Indianapolis. Despite having the starch taken out of him in the middle stages of the Malibu, Chitu still fought on gamely in the stretch to be beaten less than a length.

Palm Beach Stakes

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Like the Swale, this race was brought back after being lost in last Saturday’s cancellation at Gulfstream, and all but two of the original 11 entered are back, with the notable absence of Dubai Sky.

Last week, I liked Eh Cumpari because he was well posted near the inside and figured to save a lot more ground than he did when a wide-trip fifth behind Dubai Sky in the Kitten’s Joy. But the combination of Eh Cumpari drawing toward the outside this time and the extra week has me switching off to Divisidero.

Divisidero comes into this off only a debut win over straight maidens at 25-1. But he was very impressive visually, looping the field into the stretch, closing the deal with a powerful late kick, and giving the strong impression that he is stakes class. Divisidero would have been running back in only three weeks last Saturday, so the extra week helps him. And though he breaks from the extreme outside, an outside post didn’t stop him in his debut.

Gotham Stakes

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El Kabeir was not given the most helpful of rides last time in the Withers, where he was sent up to contest the pace in what turned out to be the two hottest splits in that race. But let’s be clear: Even though El Kabeir was beaten less than two lengths when second in the Withers, he was no match whatsoever for Far From Over, who was many lengths the best while overcoming a disastrous start.

The same goes for Classy Class, who was third in the Withers. But I’m giving Classy Class another shot because I don’t think he has had a fair chance to show what he can really do going two turns. Classy Class was a most-impressive first-out winner last fall, and that made him one to watch. He followed with a fourth in the Remsen but was severely compromised that day, going against a profound rail bias. In the Withers, Classy Class might not have been at peak since he was coming off a two-month layoff.

Thoughts on some other stakes:

◗ Don’t like the price on Shared Belief, but the only way he can lose the Big Cap is if he gets wiped out at the start. Wait. What?

◗ I like Dortmund. A lot. But I expect a form regression from him in the San Felipe after a demanding Robert B. Lewis Stakes win, and it’s probably a good thing for him to get it out of the way now. Dortmund still might win, but despite the surface switch, Bolo is sure worth a try off his knockout win last time.

◗ I also like Honor Code. A lot. But I don’t think he’s suited to Gulfstream. I lean to Wicked Strong in the Gulfstream Park Handicap.