Weekend Warrior for March 29: Picks for Louisiana Derby, Gulfstream Oaks, Pan American
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
Saturday is the biggest day of the year at both Gulfstream and Fair Grounds, with the Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby and the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby the respective features at the two tracks. Gulfstream has six other graded stakes on its card, and Fair Grounds has three. Unfortunately, weather might be a factor in both places. After another rainy forecast for New Orleans for Friday, there is still a chance for Saturday morning rain there. And there is a 50 percent chance of Saturday afternoon thunderstorms at Gulfstream.
Oh yes, Saturday also will be a bit of a big day a half a world away in Dubai, where they will run a little $10 million race called the Dubai World Cup.
Louisiana Derby
It can be argued that the form of last month’s Risen Star got a boost when fourth-place finisher Hoppertunity came back to win the Rebel, a point to consider since the first three finishers in the Risen Star are all back in this event. But I’m not buying that just yet. Vicar’s in Trouble, who was third in that prep, did have a wide trip from a tough post and was farther back early than he is accustomed to, but I didn’t like how he gave way late. Albano was very game to miss by a nose, but he got off with an unexpectedly easy early lead and won’t get that trip this time. And Intense Holiday, who got up to win the Risen Star photo, overcame being steadied on the first turn and a four-wide run on the far turn. However, because his performance was so much better than anything he did before, I need to see it again. Maybe Intense Holiday is much improved. I just need more convincing.
[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]
In Trouble is my pick. In Trouble showed ability last year winning both of his starts, including the Futurity Stakes, but was even more impressive when a narrowly beaten third in the Gotham this month off a five-month, injury-related absence. In Trouble’s hand in the Gotham was forced when he drew the rail, meaning he had to go early. And though the pace he set wasn’t especially fast, he was under pressure every step. But what was particularly impressive about In Trouble’s Gotham was the way he gamely battled back during a stretch-long duel against quality opponents in Samraat and Uncle Sigh, who both had a big edge in recency. In Trouble has a license to improve off his return, and trips out better this time as he can sit just off and outside the early speed.
Gulfstream Oaks
The much-improved House Rules was an excellent second last time out in the Davona Dale, and I like her in this spot. The Davona Dale was run on Fountain of Youth Day, when the Gulfstream main track was decidedly speed favoring. That put House Rules, a filly who likes to come from a little off the pace, at a distinct disadvantage. To minimize that disadvantage, House Rules was sent early after Onlyforyou, the even-money favorite who was loose on the lead, and who sadly suffered a fatal injury in subsequent training. Even though House Rules couldn’t overcome the track bias or the unfamiliar running style, it is to her credit she ran as gamely as she did and finished ahead of Aurelia’s Belle, who came back to win the Bourbonette Oaks.
[Florida Derby Day: Get PPs, watch Saturday's card live]
With rain possible Saturday, it will be interesting to see how the Gulfstream main track plays. Barring another speed bias, there is enough pace here for House Rules to revert to her more effective closing style.
Pan American Stakes
Slumber has shown flashes of graded stakes ability, and this is the spot for him to finally win one. Slumber had excuses in his first two starts this year – wrong distance in the Fort Lauderdale, traffic trouble in the Mac Diarmida – but he is certainly good enough against this group. The additional furlong should be no problem, and if rain renders the course off, Slumber’s European experience will stand him in good stead.
In the Florida Derby, favored Cairo Prince will have to raise his game. As talented as Cairo Prince is, three others in this race are coming off last-out efforts that are faster Beyer-wise than he has ever run. But given a fair track, Cairo Prince gets a perfect Florida Derby pace setup.