Weekend Warrior for March 28: Picks for Pan American, New Orleans, Godolphin Mile
It’s hard to overstate how important a day of racing this Saturday is. We have the biggest cards of the year at Gulfstream and Fair Grounds, and the Dubai World Cup program precedes it all.
Pan American Stakes
Twilight Eclipse hit the board in his last five starts, four of which were Grade 1 events and all of which were won by Main Sequence, last year’s champion older male and champion turf male. Twilight Eclipse was beaten a grand total of 3 3/4 lengths in those five races. So, with Main Sequence half a world away contesting the $6 million Dubai Sheema Classic, Twilight Eclipse’s merits in this spot are obvious.
That said, I cannot resist Imagining here. I’m not sure what was up with the ride Imagining received in the Gulfstream Park Turf in his first start this year. But what I saw was a horse with positional speed dragged back to be a distant trailer behind a slow pace, and who then was ridden into traffic down inside in the stretch while full of run. I’m going to call that outing a prep and note that Imagining followed a second in that same race last year with a score in the Man o’ War, the biggest win of his career. Imagining hasn’t missed a beat in training the last month, and he, too, has been close to Main Sequence. In fact, Imagining was beaten just a head by him in the Sword Dancer last summer, finishing ahead of Twilight Eclipse.
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As for the Florida Derby, I’m anticipating a big performance from Upstart, the favorite. There has been some hand-wringing over Upstart drawing post 9 going 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream, but he likes running outside, and his post really isn’t that much different from the ones he broke from when clearly best in the Fountain of Youth and Holy Bull.
New Orleans Handicap
One King’s Man is cross-entered earlier in the card in the Star Guitar Stakes, in which he would be a strong favorite against fellow Louisiana-breds. But I hope One King’s Man runs in this race because he can win at a much better price.
There is a lot of speed here. You know Moreno, second to Shared Belief in the Big Cap in his seasonal debut, is going. Mystery Train proved he is best as a front-runner. And since rating didn’t work for Red Rifle last time, he probably will send from the rail. I want a closer. One King’s Man, who improved dramatically after the claim last fall, has shown a powerful late kick in winning three of his last four starts, earning Beyer Speed Figures that would be good enough if this race does fall apart late.
My first inclination in the Louisiana Derby was to look for shippers because I didn’t think the Risen Star, the local prep, was a strong race. But I have knocks on the main shippers. Despite earning a nice Beyer when second last time in the Islamorada, I thought Stanford’s effort was empty as he had no answer after having an easy early lead. And while it is true that Mr. Z was in a photo only three starts back with such standouts as Dortmund and Firing Line, those two have progressed, and Mr. Z hasn’t. In fact, Mr. Z is still eligible for an entry-level allowance race.
So, I’m back to the Risen Star horses, and if pinned down, I would go with War Story. War Story had no excuse when second to International Star in both the Risen Star and Lecomte, but I think he could turn the tables this time with a significant first run on his rival.
Godolphin Mile
With so many people, myself included, salivating over the 20-1 morning-line price on Prayer for Relief, there is no way he will actually be that price. But he still will be a good price, and despite an onerous 27 percent takeout on Dubai races here in the U.S., I like him. Prayer for Relief has a handful of races over the last year that are good enough, including his close third to Lea two starts back. That he is now with Mike de Kock, one of the best trainers in the world, is just a bonus.
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Speaking of Lea, it’s no secret I’ve been a big fan of his for a long time. But I will be rooting for California Chrome, our Horse of the Year, to win the Dubai World Cup.