Weekend Warrior for March 22: Picks for Spiral, Bourbonette, Excelsior

For the first time since late November at Churchill Downs, there is graded stakes action Saturday in my home state of Kentucky. So the Weekend Warrior is going to hit the road, driving up 1-71 from Louisville to Florence, Ky., for Spiral Day at Turfway Park.

Full fields in the Grade 3 Spiral and Grade 3 Bourbonette make them attractive betting races, and in New York, a live longshot looms in the Grade 3 Excelsior at Aqueduct.

Spiral Stakes

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

Compared with favored Tamarando, a horse who shows up every time, We Miss Artie is an inconsistent horse. But examine his past performances a little closer and it is clear his form has been clouded by fevers – first Breeders’ Cup fever at 2, and then Derby fever this year – which tempted his owner, Ken Ramsey, to try We Miss Artie in dirt races that didn’t suit the horse as well as races on turf and synthetic surfaces.

He simply could not keep up with the best dirt 2-year-olds of last year in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and with some of the elite dirt 3-year-olds of this year at Gulfstream in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.

But We Miss Artie did perform quite nicely in his race before the Fountain of Youth, running second in a head-bobbing photo finish in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes behind a game Storming Inti on the Gulfstream turf. That quality race was representative of his ability.

Now, for the second time in his career, We Miss Artie races on Polytrack, and his first attempt on it went quite well, producing a win in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, even after he was steadied into the first turn.

Although the Breeder’s Futurity didn’t rate well in terms of final time or speed figures, it was run over a rain-soaked Polytrack surface that had puddles all over it. The conditions may have contributed to the slow time.

The other reason to like We Miss Artie is his style. He figures to stalk the pace under John Velazquez, who has been up for both of his two victories.

That should work out well with a lively pace expected from front-runners Solitary Ranger and Almost Famous, and being tactical, We Miss Artie ought to get the jump on the late-running Tamarando.

We Miss Artie is an appealing wager at 7-2 or higher.

Bourbonette Stakes

A race earlier, in the Bourbonette, the sister race to the Spiral, 6-1 shot Shanon Nicole is the choice coming out of a swiftly run Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds that was won by Kentucky Oaks Future Book favorite Untapable.

That race earned Shanon Nicole an 83 Beyer Speed Figure, a point higher than the 82 she ran in winning an off-the-turf allowance at Fair Grounds. And when a 3-year-old “pairs up” – speed figure lingo for running relatively equal quick figures – it often signals a forthcoming top effort.

Granted, Shanon Nicole will be trying Polytrack for the first time, but given that she made her first six starts on turf prior to those last two races on dirt, she gives the impression of a versatile filly who will handle anything.

With four of her 11 rivals being stretch-out sprinters, a quick pace is expected, which should aid Shanon Nicole’s midpack rally.

Excelsior Stakes

Long River and Romansh have flashy pedigrees and at times run lofty Beyers. But the Godolphin-owned entry also has nothing in the way of price appeal in the Excelsior, sitting at 2-5 on the morning line.

Former claimer Dawly, an 8-1 shot, offers significantly higher odds and is the value play. A winner of four of his last five starts, Dawly is consistent and comes off a pair of route wins by a combined 11 1/2 lengths. Both times he beat respectable fields and did so while showing a quick turn of foot.

Admittedly, he is not established as a stakes horse, but at 8-1, that is something this horseplayer is willing to forgive.

Dawly is in top form and he is the value, and often that can be all you need.