Weekend Warrior for March 21: Picks for Gazebo, Private Terms, Stud Muffin
Turfway Park offers the richest race of the day Saturday with the Grade 3, $550,000 Spiral Stakes, which is supported by the Grade 3, $150,000 Bourbonette Oaks. Elsewhere, Gulfstream has a pair of Grade 2, $200,000 events, the Inside Information and the Royal Delta, and Santa Anita’s headliner, the San Luis Rey, is also a Grade 2, $200,000 race.
Gazebo Stakes
Only seven are in this Oaklawn feature, yet it is a deep and interesting race. Steve Asmussen entered the uncoupled pair of Cinco Charlie and Bayerd, and each will have plenty of support. Cinco Charlie was 1-5 in a pair of two-turn stakes at Sunland in his last two starts. He won the first by a pole and finished second in the most recent, and now he turns back to a sprint, which is his best game. Prior to his route experiments, Cinco Charlie sprinted exclusively and won four stakes.
Bayerd also makes the route-to-sprint move off a dull eighth in the Southwest Stakes. Bayerd ran well going two turns two starts back when second in the Smarty Jones Stakes, splitting Far Right and Mr. Z, and three starts back when he prevailed in the Springboard Mile. However, Bayerd is a son of Speightstown and a Cherokee Run mare, so cutting back to a sprint makes sense. It is in such races where he is most likely to fulfill his potential.
Another making a suitable route-to-sprint move is American Sailor, who set the pace in the Smarty Jones to late on the far turn before tiring and who won sprinting in two of his prior three starts.
And there is Subtle Indian, who impressed in winning over the track in January with blinkers on following a seven-month absence to make it two romping scores from as many starts. Subtle Indian was given time after that big win by his high-percentage connections so as to avoid a form regression.
As I said, this is an interesting race. But I’m going in a different direction. I’m going with Hebbronville.
Hebbronville galloped in his first two career starts last summer at Parx, but it was his second in the Futurity at Belmont that really showed what he could do. Hebbronville wound up with the dirty-work trip in that race, keeping Cinco Charlie honest in front while racing three wide. And Hebbronville got the best of Cinco Charlie but couldn’t answer the late rail run from Blofeld, who was one of the best 2-year-olds I saw last year.
Hebbronville’s last two starts weren’t as pretty. He was eased over a muddy track in the Nashua and finished a non-threatening sixth in the Smarty Jones. But since the Smarty Jones, Hebbronville’s workouts have been much stronger, leading me to expect a return to the form he showed in the Futurity. Moreover, with all the speed (Subtle Indian, Cinco Charlie, and American Sailor) packed down on the inside, Hebbronville projects to sit a sweet outside stalking trip.
Private Terms Stakes
This is one of four stakes at Laurel, and it drew only six. This Warrior tries to avoid short fields like this because it makes finding value more difficult. But sometimes you have to make an exception.
I like Bodhisattva off his fourth in last month’s Miracle Wood, in which he set the pace and was beaten just a half-length. The Miracle Wood was run on Laurel’s General George undercard, and anyone who watched that card knows that the rail there that day was death. Bodhisattva cleared the field, got to the rail about three furlongs into the race, and stayed there, making his effort far better than it appears on paper. Bodhisattva is the main speed Saturday and should stretch out effectively.
Stud Muffin Stakes
This is the one race in the inaugural New York Claiming Championship Series at Aqueduct that has the feel of a stakes race, and Siete de Oros is my play.
After some serious layoff lines suggesting physical issues, Siete de Oros is back in shape with two strong wins at Parx in his last three starts. It is possible that he is best as a closing sprinter, but he routed so well in the Jerome, Withers, and Gotham stakes on the inner track two years ago that I don’t mind the stretch-out here at all.