Weekend Warrior for March 15: Picks for Razorback Handicap, Santa Margarita, Honey Fox
Oaklawn Park has the numbers Saturday, while Santa Anita has the ranking. Oaklawn offers three graded stakes – the Grade 2, $600,000 Rebel; the Grade 3, $200,000 Azeri; and the Grade 3, $200,000 Razorback – while Santa Anita has the day’s lone Grade 1 event – the $300,000 Santa Margarita. The feature at Gulfstream is the Grade 2, $200,000 Honey Fox Stakes.
Razorback Handicap
Called to Serve got scary good late in 2012, when he won the Discovery and Broad Brush stakes, and was accorded a good chance in the 2013 Santa Anita Handicap. Called to Serve earned another triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in the Big Cap but could do no better than finish a distant third to Game On Dude, and now he makes his first start since then. If Called to Serve returns the same horse he left, he will be a handful. But that’s a lot to ask.
After he finished second in the Strub Stakes most recently, I wrote that Govenor Charlie was the one I wanted going forward out of that race. I still feel that way, and he’s my play.
Govenor Charlie was returning from an eight-month absence in the Strub. After taking the lead into the stretch, he wound up easily second-best to uncoupled stablemate Shakin It Up and then galloped out well past the wire. It was just the kind of outing Govenor Charlie should build on, and improvement is likely the second time back. Govenor Charlie also figures to sit a good trip close to a controlled early pace involving Right to Vote, who is up in class, and Taptowne, who is coming off a layoff.
In addition, there is this startling DRF Formulator nugget in support of Govenor Charlie, trained by Bob Baffert. Since 2010, Baffert has started 19 horses in graded stakes routes at Oaklawn. Eleven won, and four others finished second or third. Keep that overwhelming success rate in mind when you look at the Baffert-trained Hoppertunity in the Rebel.
Santa Margarita Stakes
This is a fascinating race when you examine the two main preps for it from a pace perspective. The La Canada was hot-paced, which really played in favor of upset winner Spellbound, who came from way out of it, and runner-up Let Faith Arise, who also came from off the pace.
The strong La Canada pace is also why I’m against Fiftyshadesofhay on Saturday. Fiftyshadesofhay was well off the early lead in the La Canada, though not as far back as Spellbound, and she should have done better than finish a clunk-along fourth.
The other main prep for the Santa Margarita was the Santa Maria, and when Ondine elected not to go early, it resulted in Iotapa having a pretty easy time of it on the front end. Iotapa parlayed that soft trip into a win over Let Faith Arise, who was second again, although without a great setup this time.
I don’t expect the pace Saturday to be nearly as demanding as it was in the La Canada, but it will be a little more busy than it was in the Santa Maria, with Miss Serendipity keeping Iotapa engaged early. And that will help Stanwyck, my pick.
Stanwyck had an unfavorable setup when she came from last with a three-wide, far-turn rally when third in the Santa Maria. However, her performance was further validation of the improvement she showed in winning the Turnback the Alarm and narrowly missing in the Paseana in her prior two starts. Stanwyck will only be more effective if she does indeed get stronger fractions to rally into, and picking up Gary Stevens doesn’t hurt.
Honey Fox Stakes
If the 2012 or early 2013 Centre Court shows up here, the rest of this group would be in trouble. It is encouraging that Centre Court’s connections are bringing her back at 5, but she tailed off so sharply in her last two outings that I will let her beat me off the seven-month layoff.
Tapicat ran the best race of her life last time out when a close third in the Buena Vista, and a duplicate effort could be good enough. Tapicat finished close to two very good ones in Pontchatrain, who was winning her fourth straight stakes, and Grade 1 winner Egg Drop.