Weekend Warrior for March 14: Picks for Razorback, Any Limit, Santa Margarita
There is some important racing going on Saturday at Oaklawn Park, namely the return of last year’s champion 2-year-old male and leading Kentucky Derby candidate, American Pharoah, in the Grade 2, $750,000 Rebel; the seasonal debut of last year’s unanimous Eclipse Award-winning 3-year-old filly, Untapable, in the Grade 2, $300,000 Azeri; and the 4-year-old debut of multiple stakes winner Tapiture in the Grade 3, $250,000 Razorback Handicap.
But those stakes, as well as Santa Anita’s Grade 1, $350,000 Santa Margarita and the handful of other stakes around the country, all suffer from short fields. That makes it slim pickings this week for the price-shopping Weekend Warrior.
Razorback Handicap
I like Tapiture as a racehorse. It’s silly how much better he was in winning the West Virginia Derby three starts back than his nose win margin would suggest. He was completely stopped on the rail at a crucial point in midstretch and lost every bit of momentum when angling out for racing room. Tapiture ran against the grain of a speed-favoring track when second in the Pennsylvania Derby two starts back and probably did the same when second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in his most recent appearance.
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Despite the fact that the last half-mile of the Dirt Mile was run in a slow 50.36 seconds, Tapiture couldn’t get up. That, combined with the fact that he is coming off a 4-1/2-month layoff Saturday, has me taking a stand against the probable favorite.
I’m not especially taken with the next two favorites on the morning line, Ride On Curlin and Carve. Ride On Curlin failed as the 4-5 favorite when second in the Essex Handicap last time out. I can’t find an excuse for him in that race, and I didn’t care for his gallop-out. Carve is a hard hitter, and the career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 106 he earned in winning the Fifth Season most recently suggests that he can compete with these. But the fact is that Carve’s form is well established, and he never really has been quite as good as the kind he faces here.
Race Day, who has been terrific in two starts since moving into Todd Pletcher’s barn, is my preference. Race Day made his debut for Pletcher at Gulfstream in late December and won by the length of the stretch, earning an eye-popping Beyer of 109 and drubbing Sr. Quisqueyano, who came back to upset the Sunshine Millions Classic in his next start.
Race Day came back most recently to finish a close third as the favorite in the Fred Hooper Stakes but again ran very well. He was bumped around a bit at the start and steadied soon after, putting him farther off the early pace than he was expected to be. But Race Day still finished strongly, earned a 106 Beyer that validated the big figure he got in his prior start, and, notably, he galloped out well past the wire. In fact, I think Race Day will relish stretching out to two turns Saturday.
Any Limit Stakes
Perchance, a winner of both of her starts as the odds-on favorite, might be the real deal. But even though she received a field-best Beyer of 95 in her most recent victory, I was a little put off that she had to work harder than expected.
Taylor S is my play. Taylor S’s third in the Forward Gal might be better than it looks on paper as she was close to a hot pace that collapsed. Indeed, Ekati’s Phaeton, who finished fourth after disputing that pace, came back to upset the Davona Dale. And Taylor S’s win two back puts her right in the Beyer ballpark with Perchance.
Santa Margarita Stakes
Warren’s Veneda overwhelmed a field of mostly front-runners in the Santa Maria last time, but she’s so good right now that she might win again Saturday despite a different pace scenario.
Nevertheless, I’m going with Tiz Midnight. If Uzziel rates again like she did in the Santa Maria, then Tiz Midnight is fast enough to go right to the front. And she did beat Warren’s Veneda two back in the Bayakoa.