Weekend Warrior for March 1, 2014: Picks for Santa Ysabel, Gotham, First Flight

Saturday’s races across the country don’t measure up to those from last Saturday, when eight graded stakes races were contested, led by the Fountain of Youth and Risen Star. But there is still plenty of quality action on which to wager.

The Warrior has his gaze centered on California and New York, where the forecasted weather couldn’t be different. California, where it has hardly rained a drop this winter, is expected to get pounded with precipitation, while New York should be dry and cold.

Santa Ysabel Stakes

The likelihood of a muddy or sloppy track – over which not a single filly in the Santa Ysabel has raced – adds a huge element of uncertainty, but that aside, there is much to like about Swiss Lake Yodeler.

A winner of 3 of 4 starts on dirt, including two stakes, before running 11th as the favorite on turf in the Cal Cup Oaks on Jan. 25, she looks perfectly suited to the conditions of the Santa Ysabel, a 1 1/16-mile race.

That can’t be said of the morning-line favorite, Awesome Baby, who stopped badly in a prior route. Even her trainer, Bob Baffert, seemed resigned to focusing her in sprints after Awesome Baby won the 6 1/2-furlong Santa Ynez by a diminishing half-length margin Jan. 4.

In contrast, Swiss Lake Yodeler is a stakes winner going two turns at Santa Anita, having rallied from fourth to win the Golden State Juvenile Fillies at a mile Nov. 1. She also rallied from a similar position to take the seven-furlong Soviet Problem at Hollywood Park.

Drawn in post 4 on Saturday, Swiss Lake Yodeler looks perfectly poised to sit just off Awesome Baby, who races to her immediate inside. Swiss Lake Yodeler’s positional speed should further allow jockey Rafael Bejarano to keep her clear on the outside, away from discouraging wet-track kickback.

Gotham Stakes

When Uncle Sigh met Samraat in the Withers on Feb. 1, he had little choice but to play Samraat’s game by running with him early and not letting the speedy Samraat get away.

He didn’t. Hard ridden from his inside post, Uncle Sigh dueled with him for much of the race before ultimately succumbing to him and losing by a length.

When the two meet again in the Grade 3 Gotham, I’m expecting more patient handling with Uncle Sigh, which should serve him well in the race and down the road if he proves to have the talent to become a Kentucky Derby contender.

With stretch-out sprinter In Trouble fresh and drawing the fence, he seems likely to occupy Samraat early, potentially leaving Uncle Sigh in position to pounce and turn the tables.

Top Flight Handicap

When Teen Pauline came on the New York scene in July 2012 at Saratoga, she looked a budding star in setting a five-furlong track record in 56.53 seconds, which translated to a lofty 92 Beyer Speed Figure. Beyond the speed of the race, she left eventual graded stakes winner My Happy Face in her wake.

Although Teen Pauline ran well enough to become graded stakes placed a couple times in races that followed through last fall, it wasn’t until this year at Aqueduct that she began to run to the potential she flashed to begin her career.

Racing in the Affectionately and Ladies handicaps, she won with authority, leading throughout and drawing away. And while may some may view her as the beneficiary of beating suspect winter competition, the belief here is that this filly has simply flourished with a change to a free-running, front-running style.

That makes her the selection to win the Grade 2 Top Flight at Aqueduct in the race before the Gotham.

With longshot Flores Island, the only other true front-runner, drawn outside her and seeming doomed to fade if she runs with Teen Pauline, the anticipation is that Flores Island will be rated and Teen Pauline will get the desired on-the-lead trip she so enjoys.