Weekend Warrior for June 14: Picks for Regret, Stephen Foster, Vanity

Santa Anita and Churchill Downs have a strong hold on the stakes action Saturday, day and night. Santa Anita offers a Grade 1 stakes doubleheader consisting of the $400,000 Shoemaker Mile and the $300,000 Vanity Stakes. The evening card at Churchill has four graded stakes, topped by the Grade 1, $500,000 Stephen Foster Handicap.

Regret Stakes

This is one of the three supporting stakes for the Foster, and it finds the one-two finishers in the Edgewood Stakes on the Kentucky Oaks undercard – A Little Bit Sassy and Istanford – meeting again. A Little Bit Sassy’s 1 1/4-length victory in the Edgewood was flattered when Istanford came back to wire males in the Arlington Classic. However, that Arlington Classic field was not a strong one. A Little Bit Sassy and Istanford are meeting opponents Saturday who are potentially much tougher than those they have been competitive against so far.

One such opponent is Aurelia’s Belle. Aurelia’s Belle made her last start in the Kentucky Oaks, but her distant ninth in that race to the brilliant Untapable is best ignored. She was obviously overmatched, and a best-of-29 workout last Sunday suggests she has rebounded nicely.

What is particularly intriguing about Aurelia’s Belle, beyond that she was twice Grade 2 stakes-placed on dirt over the winter at Gulfstream, is this: Although this will be Aurelia’s Belle’s first start on turf, she is 2 for 2 on Polytrack, including a solid score in the Bourbonette Oaks two starts back. That portends well for a successful switch to turf.

But I’m going with Kiss Moon. Like Aurelia’s Belle, Kiss Moon made her last start in the Kentucky Oaks, and it, too, was an effort best forgotten. And like Aurelia’s Belle, Kiss Moon will be making her turf debut Saturday evening backed by prior success on Polytrack.

But there are two things that set Kiss Moon apart for me. For one, her narrowly beaten second in the Fantasy two starts back in her first outing with blinkers is the best race anyone in this field has ever run. The other is Kiss Moon’s pedigree. She is out of a mare who was a multiple winner on turf, including a Grade 3 stakes at Churchill, and she is a half-sister to a mare who was a stakes winner and graded stakes-placed on turf. It also doesn’t hurt that Kiss Moon has two recent works on Churchill’s turf course.

Stephen Foster Handicap

Will Take Charge and Revolutionary are good horses. Will Take Charge was last year’s champion 3-year-old male, while Revolutionary last year won the Louisiana Derby and finished third in the Kentucky Derby. But they are vulnerable here as the first two favorites.

I didn’t like the way Will Take Charge lugged in when he won the Oaklawn Handicap two starts back, and that race was slow for this class level. And it’s tough to endorse Will Take Charge after his empty sixth at 3-5 in the Alysheba most recently. As for Revolutionary, he was second (albeit with some trouble) in the slow Oaklawn Handicap. And when he won the Pimlico Special last time, he had an ideal pace setup, one he’s not in line for this time.

Departing has a license to improve significantly off his easy, rail-trip win in his seasonal debut and can be a tough customer. But for all of his wins, Departing has yet to win a race over this kind.

I’m taking a shot with Long River. I still don’t understand the trip Long River was given in the Charles Town Classic last time out, but he moved way, way, too early, and that’s why he faded to fifth. But Long River’s efforts before that were strong, including a near miss in the Excelsior to stablemate Romansh, who came back to be an excellent third in last week’s Met Mile.

Vanity Stakes

Let Faith Arise has morphed into a tough customer, with graded stakes wins in two of her last three starts. But Iotapa beat Let Faith Arise in the Santa Maria last February, when she made use of the No. 1 hole, and Iotapa can do it again Saturday from her inside post.

Iotapa should offer some value off her tired sixth in the Humana Distaff on the Kentucky Derby undercard. But Iotapa was up against a monster that day in Midnight Lucky, and at least she went for the win by pressing the pace and bidding three to four wide late on the far turn, as opposed to clunking along to collect a minor placing.