Weekend Warrior for July 5: Picks for Belmont Derby, Suburban, Robert Dick
The New York Racing Association’s new “Stars and Stripes” program at Belmont Park has certainly taken command of Saturday’s stakes spotlight. The Grade 1, $1.25 million Belmont Derby Invitational (formerly the Jamaica), and the Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Oaks Invitational (formerly the Garden City), attracted significant international participation. They also top a card with three other graded stakes, among them the Grade 2, $500,000 Suburban Handicap.
There is important racing elsewhere, too. The Grade 2, $500,000 Los Alamitos Derby (formerly the Swaps) marks the first stakes start of the year for the undefeated Shared Belief, last year’s Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male. And there is also the Grade 2, $300,000 Delaware Oaks at Delaware Park, backed by the Grade 3, $200,000 Robert Dick Memorial.
Belmont Derby
It’s difficult having a strong opinion in this race, but it’s still getting the top spot this week because it’s an irresistible race to handicap. Toast of New York is probably the marquee name off his very impressive victory in the UAE Derby in his most recent start. That was Toast of New York’s third straight big win, and he just might be a total monster. But he’s not perfect.
Although Saturday is supposed to be beautiful in New York, it rained a ton around here Wednesday night, was supposed to do the same again late Thursday, and more rain was predicted for Friday, thanks to Hurricane Arthur. No matter how nice Saturday is, the turf figures to be off. It should be noted that Toast of New York is running at Belmont only because he was withdrawn from the recent Epsom Derby due to soft ground. In fact, Toast of New York has never even won on turf. All of his good races overseas were on all-weather tracks. So that might be a vulnerable point.
Bobby’s Kitten will also be well bet off a powerful win in the Penn Mile. I doubt anyone in this field has more sheer talent than Bobby’s Kitten, but I question him at this stage at 1 1/4 miles.
I respect European shippers Adelaide (trainer Aidan O’Brien showed what he can do at Belmont with Cape Blanco in 2011, winning two Grade 1 races), and the streaking Gailo Chop, but I am taken with Dance With Fate.
I was impressed with how Dance With Fate and his connections got the money in the Blue Grass two starts back. The Blue Grass, and not the Kentucky Derby, was Dance With Fate’s target all winter and spring because he is considered to be best on turf and synthetic. And Dance With Fate delivered with a flourish at Keeneland, sweeping by his field, beating Medal Count, who later finished a close third in the Belmont Stakes.
Dance With Fate was given his chance in the Derby, and ran extremely well despite a brutal trip. He had trouble literally all over the track, and still was able to make a big, wide run on the far turn, finishing a highly creditable sixth. Dance With Fate has since pointed to this race, getting back on what is said to be his best surface, for a barn that obviously knows how to meet long-range goals.
Suburban Handicap
Romansh is strictly the one to beat. He was a terrific third last time in the Met Mile, and now stretches out to a distance where he should be more effective. But at the risk of hanging with a horse too long, I’m giving Moreno one more chance.
Moreno was my pick in the Met Mile because I thought he ran deceptively well in his first two starts this year (held well when close to a destructive pace in the Pimlico Special; didn’t handle the turns when coming off a long layoff at Charles Town), but he was simply awful. However, he has back races that are good enough, he gets his blinkers back on, he suitably stretches out in distance, and can be the controlling speed.
Robert Dick Memorial
Aigue Marine might simply be the best horse here, but Concise is a playable alternative.
Concise had a nice, confidence-building win last time at Belmont, and I envision her cycling back to the form she showed when third in the Garden City last year. That Garden City was loaded. Concise was nosed for second by Discreet Marq, since second in two Grade 1 races, but she finished ahead of subsequent stakes winners Watsdachances, Emollient, and Praia.