Weekend Warrior for July 27, 2019: Picks for the Bowling Green, Jim Dandy, and Bing Crosby

It’s a limited high-summer Saturday stakes menu with the main course served at Saratoga and a side dish, the Grade 1 Bing Crosby, at Del Mar. Two Saratoga stakes, the Jim Dandy and the Bowling Green, are prep races for seven-figure Grade 1’s later this meet (the Travers and Sword Dancer), while the six-furlong Vanderbilt is an important Grade 1 itself and brings out the fabulous Mitole, who I’d rank no lower than the second-best North American horse in training.

Bowling Green

A field of 13 in this 11-furlong fixture and – stop the presses! – none of Chad Brown’s trio will be close to favored. Olympico’s Fort Marcy win was soft ground-aided; Focus Group appears a half-cut below; and Chilean import Ya Primo (for race-shape purposes, he’s been a midpack stalker) has his best North American races ahead of him. Three times in 2018 he was easily beaten by El Picaro, who failed to impress in two Midwest stakes this summer.

Red Knight holds a hint of interest since he’s improved considerably in 2019 and had a compromising ground-losing trip in the two-mile Belmont Gold Cup. Zulu Alpha is the stronger of a Mike Maker-trained pair but not quite good enough to win. I’ll be surprised if morning-line third-choice Sadler’s Joy, who’s plenty classy, doesn’t need to shake off rust after a long time on the shelf.

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So, yeah, we’re down to the two favorites, Channel Maker and Arklow, who ran one-two, separated by a neck, over this trip May 11 at Belmont in the Man o’ War. That was a weird race. Channel Maker raced third, tracking the breakneck pace (sub-23-second first quarter!) set by rabbit Hunting Horn, and one might presume he had a more demanding trip than Arklow, who sat last of nine early. But Hunting Horn, whose pace was meant to help stablemate Magic Wand, hung around all the way to the end and just missed third, so the speed did not collapse.

It was Arklow who turned in easily the fastest final furlong in the Man o’ War, and it’s Arklow whom I prefer here. His Gold Cup trip was less than ideal, and while Channel Maker raced over the winter and long has been a fully fit horse, Arklow, since he dropped his rider at the start of his 2019 debut, is functionally only twice-started this season. Channel Maker’s connections surely have an eye on the Sword Dancer, while the Arklow camp seems more incentivized to get on with winning a race this year. And Arklow, who gets two pounds, will be the longer price.

Jim Dandy

Preakness winner War of Will and Belmont Stakes favorite Tacitus square off in the nine-furlong Jim Dandy, and while I’m going to cast a cold eye toward War of Will until he shows me he has come back to himself after going over the top following his perfect-trip Preakness win, I have no issues with Tacitus, who almost certainly, given the dynamics, was the “best horse” in the Belmont.

But Tacitus is the likely favorite, is a steady-closing true route horse best suited by 10 furlongs and farther, and will cede a tactical advantage in this short field to the very capable Global Campaign, my selection. While Tacitus, War of Will, and Tax were going through the Triple Crown grind, Global Campaign was staying fresh. He grabbed a quarter in his lone loss, the Fountain of Youth, and a quarter crack stemming from that issue reportedly kept him from a start in the Ohio Derby. Both his recent work pattern and the appearance he made in a video of his July 20 workout suggest the foot is not an issue. The colt, a May foal really bred to run long, has obviously gained muscle and strength since his winter debut. He’s polished up his lead changes, has very rateable speed, and leaps into action with strong far-turn acceleration. He could be gone by the time Tacitus unwinds.

Bing Crosby

As a six-furlong dirt sprint, the Bing Crosby, a Grade 2/Grade 3 sort of race dressed up as a Grade 1, is supposed to have fast horses. But I think there’s too much speed. The newly acquired, Peter Miller-trained Jalen Journey is going to take a lot of play and could even be favored over Recruiting Ready, but while the outside draw helps his chances, he’s going to be overbet and I’ll try Miller’s longer price, Line Judge.

Line Judge, a recent claim, won the Kelly’s Landing last out over seven furlongs, which long has seemed his trip. But geez, this horse just exploded on the turn, reaching the leader at the quarter pole, at which point the race was over. Maybe a six-furlong race packed with speed proves ideal.