Weekend Warrior for July 26: Picks for Amsterdam, Regret, Jim Dandy
The big races this weekend, namely the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational and the Grade 1 Bing Crosby, are on Sunday. But there are still some important stakes races Saturday. The $600,000 Jim Dandy Stakes, the local prep for the Travers, attracted Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist and heads a Grade 2 stakes doubleheader at Saratoga with the $200,000 Amsterdam Stakes. And the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap tops a pair of $200,000 stakes at Del Mar, along with the Fleet Treat Stakes.
Amsterdam Stakes
Rock Fall will be making his stakes debut Saturday but is a deserving favorite off impressive wins in his last two starts, even though he apparently surprised everyone when he won by more than nine lengths and earned a field-best Beyer Speed Figure of 103 two starts back at a cold 5-1.
Captain Serious also is a serious contender off his game second to the improved Kid Cruz in the Dwyer Stakes most recently and off the cutback to a sprint. Captain Serious won all three of his starts before the Dwyer at sprint distances, albeit at the expense of New York-breds, including a decisive score in the Mike Lee Stakes over Empire Dreams, who came back to win the New York Derby.
But I’m taking Tiznowforamerica, a live price play.
Tiznowforamerica was soundly beaten by Rock Fall two starts back, but he was making his first start in seven months, while Rock Fall had an important recency edge. And if that wasn’t enough, Rock Fall also fell into a perfect trip stalking a pace battle involving Tiznowforamerica. But Tiznowforamerica showed that he was in need of that comeback race when he improved significantly to score in his next, and most recent, start. In that score, he earned a Beyer that makes him very competitive with this group. It also doesn’t hurt that Tiznowforamerica ran well in his first two career starts last summer at Saratoga, finishing third in his debut in a highly productive maiden special weight event to In Trouble, who came back to win the Grade 2 Futurity in his next start, before registering his maiden victory late in the meet.
Regret Stakes
This is the feature on the Haskell Eve card at Monmouth, and there is a decided lack of early speed for a sprint stakes.
That’s why I like Salamera. Salamera contested a strong early pace when third in the Paseana Stakes at Gulfstream earlier this month behind graded stakes winner Heart Stealer, and she showed good early foot despite a slow start when third in the Hollywood Beach Stakes there four back. I trust jockey Paco Lopez to read the situation and send Salamera from the rail, and that could lead to a wire job.
Jim Dandy Stakes
I originally wasn’t going to include this race because it looks like a two-horse race between Tonalist and Wood Memorial winner Wicked Strong. But the death of Dance With Fate, who was euthanized Thursday after sustaining an injury while training for the San Diego Handicap, and an otherwise light stakes schedule, forced yours truly to call an audible.
To this point in their careers, Tonalist has proved a handier performer than Wicked Strong in that he seems more adaptable to slow pace scenarios than Wicked Strong, who has been more of a one-dimensional closer. But I’m siding with Wicked Strong for two reasons: I sense that Tonalist is approaching the Jim Dandy as more of a prep for the Travers than Wicked Strong is. And the addition of blinkers is huge for Wicked Strong (no, blinkers on was not listed for Wicked Strong at time of entry, but he will be wearing them).
For a colt whose biggest knock has been how distracted he can get at times, the addition of blinkers is key for Wicked Strong. They should definitely help him with his focus. Blinkers might also enable Wicked Strong to get into the game earlier than, say, he did when fourth to Tonalist in the Belmont and might help mitigate Tonalist’s pace advantage.